House, Senate Fiscal Agencies Provide Latest Forecasts

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Friday’s Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference in Lansing will provide one of the first substantive glimpses into the state’s fiscal outlook as the economy re-opens in phases, and will set the backdrop for budget negotiations amid historic unemployment. In advance of the Conference, the House Fiscal Agency (HFA) and Senate Fiscal Agency (SFA) both released Economic Outlook and Revenue Estimates for Michigan.

Both estimates will be taken into consideration during Friday’s Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference and final recommendations will be released.

Comparison of HFA and SFA Reports, SFA Estimates Starker Reality

Both the House Fiscal Agency forecast and Senate Fiscal Agency forecasts for fiscal year 2019-2020 show major deficit forecasts to the budget.

General Fund

  • HFA estimates a $1.9 billion reduction in net revenue
  • SFA estimates a $1.4 billion reduction in net revenue

School Aid Fund

  • HFA estimates a $926.7 million reduction in net revenue
  • SFA estimates a $ 1.2 billion reduction in net revenue

HFA said it is forecasting the General Fund to be $9.19 billion in 2019-20 before moving to $9.57 billion in the 2020-21 fiscal year. This represents a $1.9 billion reduction in the current fiscal year from the 2018-19 fiscal year.

For the School Aid Fund, the agency said it would be $12.63 billion in 2019-20 before increasing 4.6 percent in the 2020-21 fiscal year. This means a $926.7 million reduction in the current year from the 2018-19 fiscal year.

SFA in its forecast said for fiscal 2019-20 combined General Fund and School Aid Fund was an estimated $21.3 billion, a drop of 13.6 percent from the combined $23.1 billion in fiscal year 2018-19.

For fiscal year 2020-21, SFA projected a combined total of $22.2 billion in General Fund and School Aid Fund revenue, a 4.1 percent increase from the revised fiscal year 2019-20 revenue projection.

Much of this analysis was first reported by Gongwer News

The Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference will be broadcast live at 9 a.m. on Friday, May 15. Tune in via the internet at the following sites:

Stay tuned for updates via the Detroit Regional Chamber’s COVID-19 Business Restart Center.

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