Economic Indicators

Monthly Economic Indicators

The Chamber tracks key statistics highlighting the Detroit Region’s economic well-being and offers analysis on how it will impact the business community.

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Consumer Price Index

Inflation Increased 3.2% Over the Last 12 Months For All Items, Larger Increase Than January 

U.S. consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, in February, increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for shelter rose in February, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over 60% of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.4 percent in February; up 3.8 percent over the year. Indexes which increased in February include shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and recreation. The index for personal care and the index for household furnishings and operations were among those that decreased over the month. Read the full report.

 

Chamber Perspective

Chamber Perspective Economic Indicators

The inflation measure of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February 2024 was slightly higher than the previous report in January, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase and a 3.2% increase over the prior year. January’s 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% annual gain and December’s similar reports of 0.2% and 3.4%, respectively, show the stickiness of inflation. Despite progress from the peak in 2022, the Federal Reserve has yet to reach its goal of 2% annual change. Consistent inflation moderation is needed before the Fed may consider lowering interest rates.

The economy and labor market remain strong, including here in Michigan. The state’s unemployment rate released on March 11 remains at 4.0%, the same level as a year ago, and nearly matches the national rate of 3.7% in January 2024. Additionally, December 2023’s Detroit Regional Chamber Michigan Voter Poll indicated that 80% of Michigan voters are not worried about losing their jobs, and 75% are not having trouble finding a good-paying job.


U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in Q4 2023.

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Consumer Sentiment

Increased to 79.4 in March 2024

Consumer Sentiment

Michigan’s Unemployment Rate

Decreased to 3.9% in February 2024. Detroit MSA’s rate decreased to 3.8%.

Michigan's Unemployment Rate

Michigan and US Indicators

Monthly Unemployment Rate

Michigan’s Unemployment Rate Decreased in February 2024

Michigan’s February 2024 monthly unemployment rate decreased by one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.9%, matching the U.S. unemployment rate in February. The Detroit MSA’s unemployment rate decreased by one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.8% in February 2024.


 

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product

U.S. Economy Grew at 3.4% Rate in Q4 2023

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent. The increase in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. For more information, read the full BEA report.

The GDP is measured as the total market value of the goods and services produced within a specific geography during a given time period. Gross domestic product is a key indicator of the general health of the economy and its performance, with increases indicative of economic growth.

Consumer Price Index

Inflation Increased 3.2% Over the Last 12 Months For All Items, Larger Increase Than January 

U.S. consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, in February, increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for shelter rose in February, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over 60% of the monthly increase in the index for all items. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.4 percent in February; up 3.8 percent over the year. Indexes which increased in February include shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and recreation. The index for personal care and the index for household furnishings and operations were among those that decreased over the month. Read the full report.

 

Total Employment

Detroit Region’s Jobs Decreased in February 2024

The Detroit MSA’s monthly payroll jobs decreased to 2,032,700  in February 2024. Payroll jobs are still below 18,700 compared to February 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

Labor Force Participation Rate

Michigan’s Labor Force Participation Rate Reached A 14-Year High

Michigan’s labor force participation (LFPR) rate inched down one-tenth of a percentage point to 62.2% in February 2023. Michigan’s LFPR sits 0.3 percentage points below the national rate of 62.5%.

New Business Applications

Michigan New Business Applications Had Second Strongest Year On Record and Strong Trend Continues Into 2024

New business applications decreased 2% year-over-year amounting to 12,449 in February 2024. Despite the small decrease in February, new business application still remain strong. In 2023, new business applications totaled 147,493, a 8% increasing over 2022 and were 56% higher compared to 2019.

Consumer Sentiment

 Consumer Sentiment Increased in March 2024

According to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, consumer sentiment increased 2.5 index points to 79.4 in March 2024. According to Surveys of Consumers director, Joanne Hsu, consumers exhibited confidence that inflation will continue to soften. Overall, sentiment is essentially unchanged throughout the first quarter of 2024, remaining just shy of the midpoint between the pre-pandemic level of sentiment and the historic trough from June 2022. This stability reflects a perception among consumers that the economy has been holding steady in its current state. As the election season progresses and debates over economic policy become more salient for consumers, their outlook for the economy could become more volatile in the months ahead. Read the full report. 

The Consumer Sentiment Index is a statistical measurement that provides an economic indicator of consumers’ opinion and optimism of the state of the economy. Consumer views over their personal finances haven’t changed much from April, with stable income expectations supporting consumer spending for the time being. 

U.S. Manufacturing PMI®

PMI® Contracted In February For The 16th Consecutive Month

The Manufacturing PMI® registered at 47.8% in February, down 1.3 percentage points compared to January’s reading of 49.1%, according to the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®).

ISM® states a reading above 50% shows that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50% indicates that it is generally contracting. The index is based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers and measures general direction of economic trends in manufacturing and other sectors.

Detroit Metropolitan Airport Total Passengers

Passenger Traffic Increases Year-over-Year

Detroit Metropolitan Airport experienced a 10.5% increase in total passengers in February 2024 totaling 2.3 million passengers compared to February 2023.

Automotive Economic Indicators

Annual U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR)

New-Vehicle Sales Increase in February After Slow Start in 2024

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or selling pace increased to 15.8 million in February 2024 an improvement over January 15.0 million level.

 The Cox Automotive Economic and Industry Insights team anticipates weak economic growth, higher new-vehicle inventories, and an end to the seller’s market. Overall, the team expects 2024 to be the best year for car buyers since the pandemic.

U.S. Automotive Production

U.S. Auto Production Decreased in January 2024

In January 2024, U.S. auto production decreased to 138,800 units—a decline of almost 4% from the previous month and a 6% decline year-over-year.

Michigan Vehicle Production

Michigan Vehicle Production Down from Year Ago

Michigan vehicle production totaled 164,301 units in September 2023, decreasing 15.6%  from September 2022. Michigan accounted for 18.0% of the U.S. total production this month. In September 2023, auto production increased 15.0 percent year-over-year in Michigan and up 1.7 percent nationally; truck production decreased 18.5 percent in Michigan but was down 4.2 percent nationally.

Monthly U.S. Light Vehicle Sales

Vehicle Sales Slow in January 2024

Monthly U.S. vehicle sales in January totaled 1.11 million units down 25% compared to the previous month, but up 3% from year-ago levels.  January is typically one of the lowest-volume sales months in any given year.

Automotive Manufacturing Employment

Vehicle Manufacturing Employment Still Recovering From UAW Strikes

Michigan’s automotive manufacturing employment totaled 165,600 in February 2024, decreasing 2% compared to the previous year.  Michigan’s vehicle manufacturing employment decreased 6% in October 2023 due to the UAW strikes and have yet to recover to levels seen before strikes.

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