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Political Prognosticator Nate Silver: 2016 Presidential Election Too Early to Call

With over a year to go, Democrat and Republican party leaders should tread lightly when it comes to predicting a winner of the 2016 presidential election, according to renowned political prognosticator and founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver.

Silver said there are many disruptors for party candidates, particularly the Democrats. While he fully expects Hillary Clinton to secure the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination, Silver cautioned Conference attendees who listen to the “noise” that Democrats have a “blue wall” in the Electoral College that allegedly gives the edge to Democrats in the national election. Silver also dismissed historical evidence that three-time back-to-back presidencies from the incumbent party are historically rare.

Instead, Silver said the 2016 election will come down to likeability and name recognition. While Clinton can appeal to President Obama’s supporters, Silver said her name recognition is not as strong. Similarly, he said Republicans currently do not have a candidate that resonates with both party loyalists and undecided swing voters. To that end, Silver predicts the Republican candidate to challenge Clinton will either be Scott Walker or Marco Rubio, rather than Chris Christie or Jeb Bush.

Silver also said with more political polls beginning so early this year, the accuracy of the data is questionable and cause for concern.

“There’s too much that could happen before the 2016 election — war, changes to the economy, and the favorability rating of the current sitting president, just to name a few,” he said.

Click here to read more about Nate Silver in the Detroiter magazine.