April 2025 Small Business Data Outlook: Small Business Revenue Expectations Dim

Summary: Small businesses’ revenue expectations fell at the end of March due to tariffs and the intensity of concern with tariff policies varies by state and by industry.

• 18% of small business owners expect increased revenues due to tariffs and 44% of expect reduced revenues.  38% of small business owners believe tariffs will have no impact.
• 68% of small business owners expect trade uncertainty to continue through April and 42% expect trade uncertainty through December of this year.
• Small businesses in New York have the largest percentage of small businesses concerned with tariffs (55%) followed by Pennsylvania 52%, Florida (48%), Massachusetts (48%), New Jersey (45%), Illinois (40%), Michigan (39%), Colorado (39%), Texas 39%), and North Carolina (39%).
• Small businesses in the wholesale trade sector have the greatest concern with tariffs (76%) followed by mining (60%), retail (57%), restaurants (54%), travel & tourism (54%), contruction (53%), transportation (53%), manufacturing (52%), and art/music services (49%).

Learn more about this data from Alignable’s April Tariff Report, published April 4.

Summary: More and more small business owners are embracing AI adoption.

• 82% of those small businesses who are using AI have adopted the technology in the last 2-years and 35% started using AI in the past year.
• 96% of small business owners who have deployed AI in their businesses intend to continue their investments and 70% plan on increasing their investment in AI.
• The most common small business usage of AI is content writing and creation (43%) followed by image creation and presentations (36%) and e-mail automation (36%).
• 82% of small business owners believe that leadership on AI is essential to the future.

Learn more about this data from the SBE Council Small Business Technology Use Survey 2025, published April 8.

Summary: Small business outlook plummeted in March, but plans for capital investment on Main Street remained steady.

• 21% of small business owners expect the economy to improve (16 points lower than February).
• 9% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (3 points lower than February).
• -11% of small business owners reported higher sales in the past 3-months (1 point better than February) and 3% are expecting higher sales (11 points lower than February).
• -1% of small business owners are planning inventory investment in the next 3-months (no change from February).
• 19% of small business owners reported labor quality as their top concern in March (2^nd consecutive month), 1 point above inflation which has been the top concern for 4-years.
• 40% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill (2 points higher than February).
• 38% of small business owners raised compensation in the past 3-months (5 points higher than February) and 19% plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (1 point higher).
• 30% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (1 point higher than February).
• 59% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (1 point higher than February) and 21% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (2 points higher).
• -4% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (1 point worse than February).
• The average rate paid for short maturity loans was 8.9% (up 0.1 (10 basis points)) and 28% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis  (4 points higher than February).
• 3% of small business owners reported that financing was their top problem (no change from the past two months).

Learn more about this data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Jobs Report, published on April, 8.

Summary: Small business sales were up in March, defying consumer unease.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in March rose 1.8% from February and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 5.5% compared to March 2024.

Learn more about this data from the Fiserv Small Business Index, published on April 3.