Economic Indicators

The U.S. GDP Shrank in First Quarter in 2025

U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, declined at an 0.3 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.  Inventories, spending and investments were solid, however growth was slowed by a surge in imports as companies moved goods in advance of potential tariffs.

Detroit Region’s Unemployment Rate Rose for the Seventh Consecutive Month

Detroit Region’s March 2025 monthly unemployment rate increased to 5.3%, falling 1.1 percentage points below the national rate of 4.2%.

The U.S. GDP Shrank in First Quarter in 2025

U.S. gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, declined at an 0.3 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year.  Inventories, spending and investments were solid, however growth was slowed by a surge in imports as companies moved goods in advance of potential tariffs. Read the full BEA report.

The GDP is measured as the total market value of the goods and services produced within a specific geography during a given time period. Gross domestic product is a key indicator of the general health of the economy and its performance, with increases indicative of economic growth.

Inflation Eased in March 2025

In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers fell 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 2.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in March (SA); up 2.8 percent over the year (NSA). Read the full report.

Consumer Sentiment Falls in April 2025

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, consumer sentiment registered at 52.2 in April 2025. According to Surveys of Consumers director, Joanne Hsu, consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plummeting 8% this month.  Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead. Labor market expectations remained bleak. Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers. Read the full report. 

Michigan’s Labor Force Participation Unchanged In February

The February statewide labor force participation rate was unchanged over the month at 62%. Michigan’s employment-population ratio also remained unchanged at 58.7% during February.

Michigan’s New Business Applications Slow in 2024 But Above Pre-Pandemic Levels

New business applications have dropped by 9% in 2024 compared to 2023 but are still well above the pre-pandemic levels. The tightening of the credit market is most likely attributing to the continued slowing of applications in 2024.

Manufacturing Sector Contracted in March After Two Consecutive Months of Expansion

The Manufacturing PMI® registered at 49.0% in March, 1.3 percentage point lower compared to the 50.3 percent reported in February according to the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®).  According to Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing®, in March, the Manufacturing PMI^® reversed its recent momentum to register below its reading in December. Of the five sub indexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI^®, two (Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) were in expansion territory, the same number as in February, when Production and Supplier Deliveries indicated growth. Slower supplier deliveries and expanded inventories in March are not considered positives for the economy: Both conditions figure to be temporary and are driven by tariff concerns, either delaying buyer/seller negotiations or advancing material deliveries that will be reversed after tariffs are deployed, leading to a drawdown of manufacturing inventory. 

ISM® states a reading above 50% shows that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50% indicates that it is generally contracting. The index is based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers and measures general direction of economic trends in manufacturing and other sectors.

Passenger Traffic Dips in February 2025

DTW passenger traffic totaled 2.2 million passengers in February 2025, down almost 5% in volume compared to the previous year. Cargo is also down 7% compared to February 2024.