DBusiness Magazine
Feb. 5, 2025
The Detroit Regional Chamber today released findings from its latest statewide poll of 600 registered Michigan voters in partnership with The Glengariff Group Inc.
The poll was conducted between Jan. 2-7, 2025, and posed questions to voters on the economy, inflation, Canadian tariffs, democracy, and openness to independent political candidates for governor.
A majority of voters continue to believe Michigan is on the “right track” overall, with the lowest “wrong track” numbers since before the COVID-19 pandemic. This correlates with an 11.5% increase in voters who say they are doing “better” or the “same” from September 2024.
Voters remain equally split on the state’s economic direction by a margin of 42.9% “right track” to 42.2% “wrong track”. Inflation and costs of goods continue to be an overwhelming reason cited by those who believe Michigan’s economy is on the “wrong track.”
Costs remain the top voter concern as long-standing worries about consumer goods prices persist as well as a correlating impact of higher interest rates and housing costs as voters express concerns about mortgage rates, credit card debt, and auto loans. Despite increased housing costs, the Detroit Region’s home prices remain relatively affordable compared to peer regions.
Inflation fears have nearly doubled since September 2024, reflecting a disconnect between voter perception and the reality that the U.S. inflation rate ranked among the lowest of the advanced economy countries in 2023. Voters do not appear aware of or care about the reality that inflation is a global phenomenon or that the U.S. has fared well compared to its peers.
There is a notable post-election shift along party lines with inflation concerns and the prospect of a potential recession. Republican voters largely believe inflation will get better, while Democrats now believe it will get worse. While overall recession fears saw a minor increase, Democrat voters are most likely to expect a recession next year, while Republican voters’ fears of a recession have dropped.
A majority of Michigan voters believe neither party is producing the type of candidates to deliver results, carrying over frustration with the presidential candidates of both major parties during the 2024 general election. They also appear open to the idea of independent party candidates for governor, which reflects national trends from Gallup that the share of voters that identify as independent has grown to exceed the share for both Democrats and Republicans.
In addition to the dissatisfaction with the state of democracy in the U.S., more than 69% of voters seek compromise from elected officials. The overall frustration with democracy among both parties, combined with the desire for compromise, suggests some opportunity for independent candidates and bipartisanship in Lansing.
POLLING DATA AND ANALYSIS
Costs continue to be the top voter concern. However, there is an increased focus on the impact of higher interest rates and housing costs.
- 40.5% of voters said they have been impacted in the past year by increasing interest rates. Of those voters who said they were impacted, reasons include:
- 20.9% interest on credit cards
- 17.2% high mortgage rates or housing costs
- 13.5% auto loans or payment increase
- 9.4% cannot afford a house
- 9.0% increased interest on loans
- 8.2% paying more for everything
- 26.4% of voters said they or an immediate family member has been impacted by a lack of available or affordable housing.
- 47.1% of Black voters said there has been an impact.
- 45.5% of voters aged 18-29 said there has been an impact.
- 20.1% of voters who are employed are concerned about losing their job – statistically unchanged from September 2024 (19.9%) but nearly six percentage points higher than May 2024 (14.3%).
- 23.2% of voters said they personally have had trouble finding a good-paying job, which is down nearly four percentage points from September 2024 (27.0%), yet higher than May 2024 (21.4%).
Chamber Perspective
- A storyline worth watching is that while initial concerns about inflation and cost were tied largely to food prices, these concerns have shifted to include housing, insurance, and interest rates.
- Interest rates and home prices have increased significantly, suggesting that these items will be on voters’ minds for the foreseeable future.
- While home prices have increased in the Detroit Region, median home prices remain affordable compared to peer regions (Detroit – $287K, Minneapolis – $393K, Nashville – $421K, Austin – $481K, and Denver – $654K).
- Detroit ranked the sixth lowest in cost-burdened households among its 20 peer regions.
- The Detroit Region remains an affordable metro area that offers a high quality of life, which should continue to be a selling point to attract and retain talent and companies.
Inflation fears have nearly doubled since September 2024, and partisan divides regarding fear of recession continue but have flipped between the parties.
- Expectations that inflation will get worse next year more than doubled from 15.6% in September 2024 to 29.2% in January 2025.
- 49.4% of Strong Democrat voters now believe inflation will get worse compared to 11% of Strong Republicans. 58.5% of Strong Republican voters now believe inflation will get better, compared to 4% of Strong Democrats.
- Only 20.1% of voters think U.S. inflation has been lower than other countries.
- Belief that U.S. inflation has been higher or did not know:
- 75.4% Strong Republican
- 63.7% Independent
- 56.3% Strong Democrat
- Belief that U.S. inflation has been higher or did not know:
- 27.2% of voters now expect the nation to be in a recession next year, compared to 20.5% in September 2024.
Democrat voters are now more likely to expect a recession next year, while Republican concerns for recession have sharply dropped.
- 42.6% of Strong Democrat voters expect a recession, an increase of 32.4% since September 2024 (10.2%).
- 14.6% of Strong Republican voters expect a recession, a drop of 9.5% since September 2024 (24.1%).
Chamber Perspective
- Since the November election, inflation concerns are on the rise again after cooling some earlier in 2024.
- These fears are likely to be exacerbated amid discussions of tariffs as the majority of Michiganders recognize tariffs will increase consumer costs.
68% of voters view Canada as an economic friend, and more than half understand that Canadian tariffs will hurt Michigan’s economy.
- 68.4% of voters said Canada is an economic friend of Michigan.
- A strong majority of every demographic views Canada as a friend of Michigan’s economy.
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- 83.0% Strong Democrat
- 77.3% Lean Democrat
- 65.8% Independent
- 58.5% Lean Republican
- 56.7% Strong Republican
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- 51.7% of Michigan voters believe a 25% tariff on Canadian goods will hurt Michigan’s economy. Only 15.9% believe the tariff would help Michigan’s economy, while 21.8% said it would have no impact, and 10.6% of voters were not sure what it would do.
- Democrat and Independent voters overwhelmingly believe a Canadian tariff would hurt Michigan’s economy; a plurality of Republican voters believe it would have no impact.
Chamber Perspective
- In a highly partisan environment, where there is agreement about little, voters in this poll send a clear message: Leave Canada alone.
Canada is Michigan’s number one export market while accounting for 30% of Michigan’s total imports. This lucrative trade relationship is central to Michigan’s economic success and prosperity.
- Canada is Michigan’s number one export market at $28 billion in 2023 (43% of the $65 billion Michigan exports to the world). Over 225,000 Michigan jobs are supported by those exports to the world.
- 30% of Michigan imports come from Canada. Michigan imported $51 billion from Canada in 2023, trailing only Mexico ($69 billion).
- There is a broad understanding of the importance of the economic relationship with Canada and that tariffs will hurt Michigan’s economy.
- Michigan voters demonstrate a clear understanding that tariffs on Canadian goods will increase consumer costs.
- With cost being voters’ top concern, the wide opposition to placing tariffs on Canadian goods should get the attention of Michigan elected officials of both major parties.
- In addition to being unpopular, Canadian tariffs could have a devastating impact on Michigan’s economy.
Voters believe Michigan is on the “right track” overall, with the lowest “wrong track” numbers since before the COVID-19 pandemic.
- 52.0% of voters continue to believe Michigan is on the “right track” overall compared to 35.9% who believe it is on the “wrong track.” It is the lowest “wrong track” number since January 2020.
- “Right track” assessments are still split largely along party lines (Strong Democrat voters 81.3%, Independent voters 52.3%, Strong Republican voters 23.8%) despite Strong Republicans showing a nine percentage point increase since September 24.
- Voters were split on Michigan’s economy, 42.9% “right track” to 42.2% “wrong track.”
- Of 42.2% who said Michigan’s economy is on the wrong track, 56.7% cite inflation and costs.
- 73.3% of voters said they are doing better or the same – an 11.5% increase from September 2024.
Chamber Perspective
- The lowest overall “wrong track” numbers since before the COVID-19 pandemic correlate with an 11.5% increase in voters who say they are doing better or the same from September.
- Voters remain equally split on the direction of the state’s economy, with inflation and costs of goods continuing to be an overwhelming reason cited by those who believe the economy is on the wrong track – reinforcing the reality that voters are viewing everything through the lens of cost.
Dissatisfaction with democracy persists as voters seek compromise from elected officials and appear open to independent candidates.
- 56.8% of Michigan voters are dissatisfied with the condition of democracy in the U.S., including 37.4% are very dissatisfied. Only 34.9% are satisfied.
- This is an improvement from May 2024, when 25.5% of voters were satisfied and 67.8% were dissatisfied with the condition of democracy in the U.S.
- Strong Republican voters are now the most satisfied with democracy (39.0%) – a particularly sharp departure from the May 2024 results when Strong Republican voters were 15.1% satisfied compared to 81.1% dissatisfied with democracy.
- In response to an open-ended question, voters who were dissatisfied gave these top reasons:
- 18.7% Political infighting and toxic partisanship
- 15.2% Voice of the people does not matter as much as money
- 10.8% Government is corrupt/bad
- Michigan voters were asked if an independent candidate ran for governor and was not nominated by either the Democratic or Republican Party, how open would they be to considering that candidate.
- 41.4% Very open to considering an independent
- 22.1% Somewhat open to considering an independent
- 19.3% Likely to vote for my party’s candidate
- 15.9% It would depend on the candidate
- Not surprisingly, Strong Democrat and Strong Republican voters were the least likely to consider the independent candidate. However, 57.0% of independent voters would be “very open” to considering one.
Chamber Perspective
- As reflected in 2024 polling, a sizable plurality of voters was dissatisfied with the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates.
- That dissatisfaction translates here as nearly two-thirds of voters being willing to consider an independent candidate. However, it is important to note that they are responding to a concept of an independent candidate, not an actual candidate.
- National Gallup data shows that the share of voters who identify as Independent has been steadily growing over the past 20 years and has increased from 31% to 43%. This exceeds the 28% share for each Democratic and Republican party.
- Despite small improvements since the previous poll, a majority of voters remain dissatisfied with democracy and believe neither party is producing candidates that can deliver results. This suggests Michigan voters are open to an independent candidate for governor.
- Support for compromise is relatively high, which suggests an opportunity for Republicans and Democrats in Lansing to work together to position Michigan for success.
To view the poll results, visit https://www.detroitchamber.com/february-2025-michigan-voter-poll/.