Economic Indicators

Consumer Sentiment Improves for the First Time in Six Months

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, consumer sentiment registered at 60.7 in June 2025. According to Surveys of Consumers director, Joanne Hsu, consumer sentiment surged 16% from May in its first increase in six months—confirming the mid-month reading—but remains well below the post-election bounce seen in December 2024. The improvement was broad-based across numerous facets of the economy, with expectations for personal finances and business conditions climbing about 20% or more. Despite June’s gains, however, sentiment remains about 18% below December 2024, right after the election; consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come. Consumers continue to be concerned about the potential impact of tariffs, but at this time they do not appear to be connecting developments in the Middle East with the economy. Read the full report. 

Michigan’s Unemployment Rate Decreased in May 2025

Michigan’s May 2025 monthly unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points over the month to 5.4%. Detroit MSA’s unemployment rate decreased in May 2025 as well. The national unemployment rate remained constant for the third consecutive month at 4.2%.

The U.S. GDP Shrank in First Quarter in 2025

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment and consumer spending. Read the full BEA report.

The GDP is measured as the total market value of the goods and services produced within a specific geography during a given time period. Gross domestic product is a key indicator of the general health of the economy and its performance, with increases indicative of economic growth.

Inflation Rose in May 2025, Less Than Expected

In May, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 2.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in May (SA); up 2.8 percent over the year (NSA). Read the full report.

Consumer Sentiment Improves for the First Time in Six Months

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, consumer sentiment registered at 60.7 in June 2025. According to Surveys of Consumers director, Joanne Hsu, consumer sentiment surged 16% from May in its first increase in six months—confirming the mid-month reading—but remains well below the post-election bounce seen in December 2024. The improvement was broad-based across numerous facets of the economy, with expectations for personal finances and business conditions climbing about 20% or more. Despite June’s gains, however, sentiment remains about 18% below December 2024, right after the election; consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come. Consumers continue to be concerned about the potential impact of tariffs, but at this time they do not appear to be connecting developments in the Middle East with the economy. Read the full report. 

Michigan’s New Business Applications Slow in First Quarter of 2025

New business applications have dropped by 7% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to Q1 2024 but are still well above the pre-pandemic levels. The tightening of the credit market and uncertainty surrounding tariff policies most likely attributing to the continued slowing of applications in 2025.

Economic Activity in the Manufacturing Sector Contracted in May for the Third Consecutive Month

The Manufacturing PMI® registered at 48.5% in May, 0.2 percentage point lower compared to the 48.7 percent reported in April according to the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®).  

ISM® states a reading above 50% shows that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50% indicates that it is generally contracting. The index is based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers and measures general direction of economic trends in manufacturing and other sectors.