Today, the Detroit Regional Chamber released findings from its latest statewide poll of 600 registered Michigan voters, conducted between April 24 and 28, 2025, in partnership with The Glengariff Group, Inc. The poll posed key questions on topics such as the economy, inflation, tariffs, and democracy.
“Recession fears are up a notable 11% across all voters. Extreme political polarization threatens to exacerbate Michigan’s already disproportionate risk to federal policies impacting trade (especially with Canada), manufacturing, and electric vehicles (EVs). Our statewide leaders need to rally around a shared vision for Michigan’s competitiveness rather than retreat to their political corners while our growing innovation-based economy takes body blows.”
“In our ongoing partnership with Richard Czuba and The Glengariff Group, the Chamber has learned from Richard’s counsel that it used to be that voters’ opinions of the sitting president were largely based on their views of economic conditions,” Baruah added. “In today’s political environment, however, it seems dynamics have flipped: how strong partisans view the sitting president now strongly impacts their views of the economy.”
– Sandy K. Baruah, President and Chief Executive Officer, Detroit Regional Chamber
“Michiganders have become significantly more pessimistic about rising inflation and a potential recession. Democrat and independent voters are sharply more pessimistic while Republican voters are sharply more optimistic. Voters now appear to measure the economy increasingly through the lens of their political affiliation.”
– Richard Czuba, President of The Glengariff Group, Inc.
A plurality of voters continues to believe Michigan is on the “right track” overall, but shows a notable decline since January 2025, caused by shifts from Strong Democrat and Independent voters. This shift along party lines, along with continued polarization, are consistent themes throughout the poll and demonstrate that voters’ views of the economic and political situation depend on their party affiliation. Democrats who were optimistic under President Joe Biden are largely pessimistic under President Donald Trump, while Republicans who were pessimistic under Biden are largely optimistic under Trump.
Michigan voters are split on the state’s economic direction, marking a significant shift from January 2025, representing the lowest economic “right track” data since November 2023. The top reason for those believing Michigan’s economy is on the wrong track was inflation or cost of goods, with tariffs entering the conversation for the first time.
There is an increased feeling among voters that the economy is weakening, and those views are directly tied to party affiliation and have shifted since the November 2024 general election. Democrat and Independent voters view a previously growing economy as collapsing. In contrast, Republican voters now see a previously struggling economy as surging, despite little fundamental change in key economic indicators such as the unemployment rate, interest rates, and GDP growth.
Fears of recession have increased by 11 percentage points — from 27.2% in January 2025 to 38.2% in April 2025 — and have shifted based on party affiliation, reflecting the lack of a shared reality across the political aisle. While still collectively lower than 2023 levels, recession fears are increasing for Democrat and Independent voters, while Republican voters have virtually no expectation of a recession in the next year.
A vast majority of voters overwhelmingly believe their current job will be available in five years. Similarly, most say they are doing better or the same economically, are not overly concerned about losing their jobs, and believe good jobs are available. This confidence in job security is in stark contrast to the growing concerns about recession, inflation, and costs, and suggests that any economic impact from tariffs has not hit most voters’ pocketbooks enough to alter their views of job prospects.
Fears of worsening inflation have surged since January 2025, reinforcing the trend that people’s views on politics now inform their view of the economy, the opposite of what used to be true. Democrats and Independents believe that inflation will get worse, while Republicans believe it will get better.
By a slight majority, voters continue to oppose Trump’s tariffs, but their positions on the tariffs reflect the electorate’s current political polarization. On tariffs, Democrat voters are sharply opposed, Republicans are sharply supportive, and Independents are split down the middle. Interestingly, automotive workers appear to be at the epicenter of the political split, with their views on the economy and policy also largely falling along party lines despite their industry being disproportionately impacted by tariffs. The Chamber notes the shifting political dynamics that today’s Republican voters are comfortable with tariffs, which are a tax paid by consumers, as opposed to Democrats, who largely oppose tariffs and increased consumer taxes.
A large majority of voters recognize that tariffs are going to increase consumer prices, yet nearly one-third of voters say they still support tariffs despite resulting price increases. What’s more, 9% of voters who say that tariffs will be bad for Michigan still support tariffs. Again, party affiliation and winning political arguments appear to be a driving factor in these numbers. Compared to past trends of voters willing to support policies they may not like for “the greater economic good,” this also reflects a different political dynamic of people willing to vote against their current-day self-interest in order to remain faithful to their chosen political affiliation.
Michigan remains at a disproportionate risk from fluctuating economic policies like tariffs. For example, one in five voters says they have delayed purchases, like vehicles. These views also fall along party lines. Politicization continues to be a growing threat to Michigan’s economy. Democrats and Independents have changed spending patterns due to tariffs, while Republicans have stayed the same.
Many voters in this poll support the idea that tariffs will bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., which is something most can support in some way. However, it is critical that all Michiganders understand the risks and opportunities that come with tariffs, which disproportionately hurt Michigan. Of the 17 automotive assembly plants that have been opened in the U.S. since 2004, only four were in Michigan. While it is unclear how many manufacturing jobs tariffs will bring back to the U.S., current trends suggest many of those would not come back to Michigan. The state’s current industry already bears the brunt of the tariff impact, including major downgrades in total U.S. vehicle production estimates for 2025.
A majority of every voting demographic — nearly 65% — agrees that letting China become the world leader in EV manufacturing would hurt Michigan’s economy. However, significant portions of automotive households and Strong Republicans say it would make no difference or have no impact, reflecting differing economic worldviews based on party affiliation.
Republicans have vastly different views on EVs and EV manufacturing than other voters. Nearly 58% of Michigan voters think the state should aggressively compete to be the leader in EV manufacturing, with support from a majority of every party affiliation except for more than half of Strong Republicans, who believe Michigan should not compete for EV manufacturing. To add perspective, the share of EV sales globally exceeds the market share of full-size pick-ups in the American market. Regardless of whether someone likes or dislikes the idea of an EV, the global market trends show that this is indeed a growing market opportunity, and a decision needs to be made if Michigan will be competitive in this new market.
While the majority of voters value post-high school education, nearly 27% said it wasn’t important. Only 16.9% see a four-year college degree as affordable, a view held across all voting demographics. This continues previous trends where, despite overwhelming data that those with four-year degrees get most of the good-paying jobs, a majority of voters still do not see the value in a four-year degree at costs perceived as unaffordable. Conversely, it is notable that nearly 76% of voters agree that a two-year community college degree is affordable.
A plurality of voters continues to believe Michigan is on the “right track” overall, but shows a notable decline since January 2025, caused by shifts from Strong Democrat and Independent voters.
Michigan voters are split on the state’s economic direction, marking a significant shift from January 2025, with April 2025 representing the lowest economic “right track” data since November 2023.
By a margin of 37.6% right track to 44.0% wrong track, Michigan voters are split on the state’s economic direction. These numbers are a significant shift from January 2025, when voters were split in this category at 42.9% right track to 42.2% wrong track.
There is an increased feeling among voters that the economy is weakening, and those views are directly tied to party affiliation and have shifted since the election.
Fears of recession have increased by 11 percentage points — from 27.2% in January 2025 to 38.2% in April 2025 — and have shifted based on party affiliation.
| Survey Period | Expect a Recession |
| Feb. 2023 | 49.6% |
| May 2023 | 56.3% |
| Nov. 2023 | 50.5% |
| May 2024 | 29.6% |
| Sept. 2024 | 20.5% |
| Jan. 2025 | 27.2% |
| April 2025 | 38.2% |
Recession fears are increasing for Democrat and Independent voters, while Republican voters have virtually no expectation of a recession in the next year.
| Party Affiliation | Jan. 2025 | April 2025 | Jan. to April Change |
| Strong Democrat | 42.6% | 72.5% | +29.9% |
| Lean Democrat | 40.9% | 59.7% | +18.8% |
| Independent | 21.5% | 40.4% | +18.9% |
| Lean Republican | 20.8% | 10.5% | -10.3% |
| Strong Republican | 14.6% | 5.7% | -8.9% |
Fears of worsening inflation have surged over the past year.
A vast majority of voters overwhelmingly believe their current job will be available in five years. Similarly, most say they are doing better or the same economically, are not overly concerned about losing their jobs, and believe good jobs are available.
A majority of voters continue to oppose Trump’s tariffs, but their positions on the tariffs reflect the electorate’s current political polarization.
| Party | Support | Oppose |
| Strong Democrat | 1.2% | 96.2% |
| Lean Democrat | 8.3% | 81.7% |
| Independent | 48.6% | 50.9% |
| Lean Republican | 77.6% | 14.4% |
| Strong Republican | 91.8% | 4.2% |
Nearly half of voters say tariffs will create more manufacturing jobs in Michigan, but there is a sharp split by party.
| Party | More | Less | No Impact |
| Strong Democrat | 17.4% | 50.9% | 21.6% |
| Lean Democrat | 20.8% | 44.4% | 19.4% |
| Independent | 44.7% | 32.5% | 15.8% |
| Lean Republican | 72.4% | 5.3% | 14.5% |
| Strong Republican | 85.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% |
A large majority of voters recognize that tariffs will increase consumer prices, yet nearly one-third say they still support tariffs despite the resulting price increases.
More than 1 in 5 voters say they have delayed purchases, especially vehicles, again, largely along party lines.
A majority of every voting demographic agrees that letting China become the world leader in EV manufacturing would hurt Michigan’s economy.
Republicans have vastly different views on EVs and EV manufacturing than other voters.
| Party | Should Compete | Should Not Compete |
| Strong Democrat | 71.9% | 24.6% |
| Lean Democrat | 69.4% | 25.0% |
| Independent | 56.1% | 33.3% |
| Lean Republican | 57.9% | 38.2% |
| Strong Republican | 39.3% | 54.4% |
Voters no longer share common facts, which has made having a common political reality nearly impossible, which presents challenges for creating sensible, long-term policy on complex issues such as EVs and trade.
The American political middle matters less and less. Politicians are not rewarded for appealing to the middle, but rather for driving out their base and demonizing or suppressing the other side. Party affiliation continues to drive economic perceptions as opposed to actual economic data and trends. This poses a growing threat to Michigan’s economy and global automotive leadership.
Significant portions of voters appear willing to accept or support policies they know will increase costs or are bad for Michigan as long as they are supported by their party, reflecting the zero-sum game, “us versus them” political environment where party affiliation trumps other considerations.
There is an undeniable shift in perceptions following November 2024’s presidential election, with the two major parties often swapping places in their views of key issues ranging from their economic outlook to the state of democracy. Republican voters who were pessimistic under Biden are largely optimistic under Trump, while Democrats who were optimistic under Biden are largely much more pessimistic under Trump, despite relatively minimal changes in broad economic indicators since Biden left office and Trump assumed his second term.
A common thread through this entire poll is that voters’ outlook on the state’s direction as a whole and the state’s economic direction is dictated by their political views. In the past, voters’ feelings about the economy directed their political views; this paradigm has flipped.
The declining numbers of those who feel the economy is on the right track correlate to growing fears of recession, inflation, and rising costs. Yet the impact of such policies like tariffs has not hit pocketbooks enough to reduce optimism about job prospects. The impact of tariffs has yet to roll through supply chains and into American consumers’ pocketbooks.
The continued politicization of economic issues such as EVs, tariffs, and manufacturing continues to put Michigan at a disproportionate risk and threatens efforts to grow Michigan’s economy.
The stated goal of tariffs is to bring back more manufacturing jobs to the U.S., which is something we can all support in some way, but it is critical that Michiganders understand the opportunities and risks for Michigan.
While it is unclear how many manufacturing jobs tariffs will bring back to the U.S., current trends suggest many would not return to Michigan. The state’s current industry already bears the brunt of the tariff impact, including major downgrades in total U.S. vehicle production estimates for 2025.
Voter polls continue to show disconnects that don’t reflect the economic realities playing out. While most voters believe tariffs and Chinese leadership in EVs will be bad for Michigan, they do not appear to connect those threats to their job prospects.
While some poll respondents in Michigan cited delaying automotive purchases, nationwide, car sales have increased as consumers appear to be trying to purchase vehicles ahead of price increases expected from tariffs.
Voters value post-high school education, but largely do not see a four-year college degree as affordable, while holding the opposite view of two-year degrees or trade certificates.
Nearly two-thirds of voters remain dissatisfied with the condition of democracy in the U.S. While statistically consistent overall with May 2024 results, when broken down by party, perceptions have shifted.
| Party | May 2024 Satisfied | Dissatisfied | April 2025 Satisfied | Dissatisfied |
| Strong Democrat | 36.9% | 55.2% | 11.4% | 84.5% |
| Lean Democrat | 22.1% | 72.1% | 20.9% | 79.2% |
| Independent | 28.2% | 63.3% | 16.7% | 75.4% |
| Lean Republican | 17.5% | 80.7% | 46.1% | 48.7% |
| Strong Republican | 15.1% | 81.1% | 50.7% | 42.5% |