New Statewide Poll: Perception-Reality Gaps Point to ‘Era of Misinformation’ Across Economy, Education, and Democracy

This perception-reality disconnect is an extension of lingering variance between what voters think of general economic conditions versus their own circumstances – a prominent theme spanning much of the Chamber’s polling in recent years. The level of misinformation contributing to these divergent perspectives poses significant challenges to fostering unified approaches to further develop the economy and continue economic progress.

Many believe college degrees are much more expensive than they really are. They also think students are graduating with much more debt than they really are. More troubling, yet, is the misconceptions around how valuable a college degree is for economic success. Despite 42% of voters identifying financial stability as a key measure of success, 23% do not think a college education – which data proves leads to significantly higher lifetime earnings and dramatically lower chances for unemployment – is important. This helps underscore a persistent challenge that could continue to hinder the state’s competitiveness and economic prosperity. Click for full data.

In this election year, the Chamber drew special attention to voters’ thoughts on the strength of democracy with this poll. The results are jarring. Amid drastic polarization on nearly every economic and societal issue, there is a concerning consensus in overall lack of commitment to and confidence in democratic systems.

Key Findings

• 68% of respondents are dissatisfied with the condition of democracy in the United States, with nearly half being very dissatisfied.
• Only 67% of respondents agree that democracy is the best form of government. Only 49% strongly agree democracy is the best form of government.
• 17% of respondents believe it does not matter if our government is a democracy.
• Centrist voters were far more likely to say our form of government did not matter than either base Republicans or base Democrats.
• “Other political figures” are the biggest threat to democracy according to voters. By party affiliation:
  • Democrats – 26.3% Trump and the GOP, 10.5% corrupt politicians
  • Independents – 7.8% civil unrest, 6.3% Trump and the GOP, 6.3% corrupt politicians
  • Republicans – 28.9% Biden and the Democrats, 11.9% corrupt politicians, 9.4% illegal immigration
• 86% of respondents say political violence is a threat to American democracy. However, 5% say violence is justified if the candidate for president they support loses the 2024 election after all votes are counted fairly.

Michigan voters continue to believe the state’s economy is on the wrong track by a margin of 39% right track to 52% wrong track.

The 51.7% who believe the economy is on the wrong track were asked why. 53.8% of these respondents cited inflation, the cost of goods, or the inability to earn enough.

The 53.8% figure citing inflation and cost of living concerns has been statistically consistent in every survey in which the Chamber has asked this question, dating back to December 2022.

• 42.9% – Inflation/cost of goods
• 14.4% – Anti-Biden/anti-Democrats
• 10.6% – Taxes and government spending
• 8.3% – No good jobs/unemployment
• 5.8% – Cost of gas prices
• 5.1% – Wages are too low/not paying enough

Those doing better or the same economically as before the COVID-19 pandemic holds steady near 60%.

• 38.1% are doing worse
• 26.2% are doing better
• 33.6% are doing about the same

When asked in an open-ended question why they are doing worse, 76% of these respondents gave an answer citing high costs and inflation. Strong Republican voters continue to drive the number that say they are doing worse.

Nearly 85% of employed voters are not concerned about losing their jobs.

• 84.7% of employed voters are not concerned about losing their jobs
• 74.4% are not concerned at all about losing their current job, an increase of 12 percentage points since the November 2023 survey
• Only 14% of voters are concerned about their job security, down from 21% in November 2023

More than 75% of voters have not had trouble finding a good-paying job.

• Only 21.4% of respondents say they have had trouble finding a good-paying job
• 76.8% say they have not had trouble finding a good-paying job

63% of voters agree good jobs are available.

Respondents were asked if there were good-paying jobs available for anyone that wants to work. The results are statistically consistent with November 2023.

• 62.7% of voters say good jobs are available
• 20.7% of voters say good jobs are not available

Compared to other issues with significant partisan differences, these results show minimal variation by party affiliation with Democrats at 64%, Independents at 66%, and Republicans at 59%.

Age continues to be a key difference on this question. 18-29-year-old voters are less likely than older voters to say good jobs are available.

Nearly a quarter of voters believe inflation is more than 8% when asked what the rate of inflation was over the past year. It is 3.4% as of April 2024.

• 4.5% say less than 2%
• 23.8% say between 2% and 4%
• 22.5% say between 4% and 6%
• 13.2% say between 6% and 8%
• 23.5% say more than 8%
• 12.4% of voters simply do not know

Only 28.3% believe inflation is running below 4%.

By political affiliation:

Nearly 70% of voters believe wages have grown slower than inflation over the past year.

• 67.5% believe wages have grown slower than inflation over the past year
• 17.4% believe wages have grown the same as inflation
• 7.8% believe wages have grown faster than inflation

61% of voters see the economy weakening or in recession, down nearly 8% from the November 2023 poll.

Voters were asked which statement best reflects their view of the economy:

• 7.8% – The economy is seeing strong growth
• 27.8% – The economy is seeing growth, but slow growth
• 44.9% – The economy is weakening, but we are not in recession
• 16.2% – The economy is in recession

30% of respondents expect a recession next year, a dramatic decrease from the 51% reported in the November 2023 survey.

Those expecting inflation to get worse in the next year decreased from nearly 45% to 33% from November 2023.

Respondents were asked in an open-ended question: “What is the most important measurement for determining if someone is successful in Michigan?” The overwhelming top choice was financial stability.

• 41.8% – Financial security and stability
• 7.9% – Financial stability/having a job
• 7.5% – Having disposable income/good pay
• 6.5% – They can afford their basic needs like food and rent
• 6.0% – Their standard of living is comfortable
• 4.5% – The ability to save/not live paycheck to paycheck
• 4.0% – The ability to pay bills
• 3.6% – Afford to raise family/provide for them
• 1.8% – Being debt-free

Other responses included work ethic, happiness, home ownership, and good health among others.

Only 19% of voters think a four-year degree is the minimum education required to make a living wage to support a family.

•  38.9% – Certification in a trade program
• 29.6% – High school diploma
• 19.2% – Four-year/bachelor’s degree
• 6.3% – Two-year/associate degree

The chart below compares these answers by party affiliation.

The chart below compares answers by education level.

Geography and gender impact the perception of the minimum level of education required to make a living wage to support a family.

Rural residents were more likely to say that a high school diploma was enough (34.4%) and less likely to say a bachelor’s degree was enough (10%) than urban and suburban voters. By gender, 36.8% of men said a high school diploma was required compared to 23.1% of women.

The perceived importance of college education remains unchanged since February 2023; 23% say it is not important to make a living wage to support a family.

• 69.9% say it is at least somewhat important
  • 24.0% say it is very important
  • 45.9% say it is somewhat important
• 23.0% say it is not important
  • 10.9% say it is not very important
  • 12.1% say it is not important at all

This number appears statistically identical to February 2023 polling in which respondents were asked how important a college education was to landing a successful job in Michigan.

• 70.5% say it is at least somewhat important
  • 26.5% say it is very important
  • 44.0% say it is somewhat important
• 23.1% say it is not important
  • 11.6% say it is not very important
  • 11.5% say it is not important at all

Only 22% of voters say a four-year degree is worth the money.

• 51.5% say it was not worth the money
• 22.7% of respondents say it would depend on the degree

Only 13.0% of those with some post-high school education think a college degree is worth the money. Only 30.1% of college graduates think a degree is worth the money.

By party affiliation, 39.5% of Strong Democratic voters say a four-year degree is not worth the money; 49.2% of Independent voters say a degree is not worth the money; and 64.2% of Strong Republican voters say a four-year degree is not worth the money.

So how much does a degree actually cost? Nearly a third say over $100,000.

Respondents were asked how much the average cost of a four-year degree at universities like Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Michigan universities cost.

•  20.2% believe it costs between $20,000 and $50,000
• 45.0% believe it costs between $50,000 and $100,000
• 29.1% believe it costs more than $100,000

According to the Michigan Association of State Universities, it actually costs approximately $64,000.

There were no statistical differences between respondents based on educational attainment.

82% say a degree costs more than a new car.

Respondents were asked: “Which costs more? The average cost of a new car or a four-year degree at Western, Central, Eastern, or Northern Michigan universities?”

• 82.0% say a four-year degree
• 10.3% say a new car

Nearly 60% of respondents say the student loan debt for the average student graduating from Wayne State University is over $50,000.

•  1.3% – Less than $10,000
• 9.9% – $10,000 to $25,000
• 29.1% – $25,000-$50,000
• 31.5% – $50,000-$75,000
• 15.6% – $75,000-$100,000
• 11.3% – More than $100,000

47% of graduating Wayne State University students have no student debt. Those that do carry less than $25,000 at graduation.

Respondents were then told the tuition cost for a freshman at Wayne State University was $14,677. They were then asked how much the average amount of debt-free aid a Wayne State University freshman could receive to lower their tuition.

• 11.1% – More than $13,500
• 5.1% – $11,000 to $13,500
• 11.9% – $8,000 to $11,000
• 27.2% – $5,000 to $8,000
• 24.7% – $1,000 to $5,000
• 2.3% – Less than $1,000

The actual average provided by Wayne State University is $13,165. This data was based on the most recent freshman class.

68% of voters are dissatisfied with the condition of democracy in the United States, and nearly half are very dissatisfied.

• 25.5% of voters are satisfied
• 67.8% are dissatisfied
• 45.4% of voters are very dissatisfied

There are dramatic differences by party affiliation with 81.1% of Strong Republicans dissatisfied with the condition of democracy in the United States and 62.9% very dissatisfied.

When asked in an open-ended question why they were dissatisfied, each party affiliation had something different to say.

Only 49% of voters strongly agree democracy is the best form of government.

Respondents were asked if they agree or disagree that democracy is the best form of government.

• 75.0% of voters agree that democracy is the best choice
  • 49.2% strongly agree
  • 25.8% somewhat agree
• 14.8% of respondents disagree that democracy is the best form of government

Interestingly enough, despite fervent disagreement on most issues, there is very little variance on this topic by party affiliation.

The 14.8% of respondents who disagree that democracy is the best form of government were asked why in an open-ended question:

• 16.9% – Prefer a republic
• 14.6% – Democracy is broken
• 13.5% – There is too much corruption
• 10.1% – Democracy is mob/majority rule
• 9.0% – Two political parties are too limiting

17% say it doesn’t matter if our government is democratic.

Respondents were offered three statements and asked which one they agreed with most:

• 66.7% – Democracy is the best form of government
• 17.2% – I don’t think it really matters if our form of government is democratic or non-democratic
• 4.6% – Under certain circumstances, an authoritarian government can be preferable to a democratic government
• 11.4% – Could not offer an opinion

67% of voters say democracy is the best form of government, but 33% say it does not matter, authoritarian government could be preferable, or they could not even answer the question. Voters aged 30-49 were much more likely to say it does not matter than voters over 50:

Centrist voters were far more likely to say our form of government does not matter than either base Republicans or base Democrats.

Voters express strong uncertainty in six guarantees of the United States’ democracy.

Respondents were read six different guarantees of our democracy and asked if they were confident or not confident in that guarantee.

Democratic voters are confident about four of six rights and unconfident about two rights.

Independent voters are confident about four of six rights and unconfident about one right. They are split on one right.

Republican voters are confident about two of six rights and unconfident about four rights.

FREE SPEECH: A majority of Republican voters, a majority of Independent voters, and a

majority of Black voters are unconfident in their right to free speech.

FREEDOM TO WORSHIP: Of these six, only the freedom to go to church and practice your religion found voters to be very confident by a majority of voters at 53.3%.

VOTE COUNTS THE SAME AS EVERYONE ELSE: A majority of Republican voters are unconfident that their vote counts the same as everyone else’s vote.

Voters over the age of 65 were among the most confident that their vote counted the same as everyone else’s at 72.9% to 25.3%.

FEDERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT: No demographic group feels confident that federal law enforcement applies the law equally and fairly without bias. Republican voters are particularly unconfident with 66.7% reporting being very unconfident.

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT: The most dramatic difference in confidence in local law enforcement occurs by race with Black voters and white voters diametrically opposite in their confidence. While Republican voters are sharply unconfident about federal law enforcement, they are sharply confident about local law enforcement.

VOTES COUNTED ACCURATELY: The sharpest differentiator about whether your vote is counted accurately in our democracy is party affiliation.

Other political figures, especially of the opposite party, are the biggest threat to democracy according to voters.

• 10.4% – Donald Trump and the Republicans
• 10.1% – Corrupt politicians
• 9.6% – Joe Biden and the Democrats
• 5.6% – Politicians
• 5.3% – Foreign influence/involvement
• 5.0% – Illegal immigration/open borders
• 5.0% – Civil unrest/division
• 3.8% – Partisanship and political infighting
• 3.5% – Corporate influence
• 3.3% – Social media/spread of misinformation
• 2.8% – Stupidity and uneducated people
• 2.5% – Ourselves/the American people
• 2.2% – Career politicians
• 2.0% – Who might win the election and what they’ll do

By party affiliation:

• Democrats – 26.3% Trump and the GOP, 10.5% corrupt politicians
• Independents – 7.8% civil unrest, 6.3%. Trump and the GOP, 6.3% corrupt politicians
• Republicans – 28.9% Biden and the Democrats, 11.9% corrupt politicians, 9.4% illegal immigration

86% of Michigan voters say political violence is a threat to American democracy.

• 51.0% believe political violence is a serious threat
• 34.9% believe it is somewhat of a threat
• 10.0% of voters do not believe political violence is a threat

35% of Michigan voters say there are circumstances when the use of force, violence, or threats is justified in a democracy.

• 51.5% say there are not circumstances
• 35.4% say there are circumstances
• 13.1% simply do not know

Four demographic groups rose above 40% that say there are circumstances when it is justified: Men 40.6%, rural voters 43.1%, Strong Republican voters 44.0%, and Leaning Republican voters 56.1%. Respondents who say there are circumstances were asked if they could name an example in an open-ended response:

• 33.2% – In the case of a crime committed, violence is justified
• 7.9% – Riots or mobs
• 7.5% – Terrorism or threat from a foreign power
• 6.1% – The police should be able to respond with force
• 4.7% – Revolution against federal overreach
• 4.7% – January 6, 2021
• 4.2% – Protests going overboard
• 4.2% – If our rights are threatened
• 2.8% – If a group unlawfully claims political power

89.7% of respondents say there is no justification for violence or threats if the candidate for president they support loses the 2024 election after all the votes are counted fairly. 5.0% say violence is justified. 1.5% say it would depend on if they were counted fairly. 3.8% are undecided.

87.3% of respondents say there is no justification for violence or threats if the candidate for President they support loses and their candidate believes the opposing party took unfair or illegal actions to win, despite experts and election officials deeming the count fair. 6.4% say there is justification. 0.8% of voters say it would depend on if they could truly prove it was not stolen. 5.5% are undecided. Voters that say there is a justification were almost exclusively Republican voters (10.5% of Leaning Republican voters and 12.5% of Strong Republican).