Aug. 9, 2024 | This Week in Government: Recapping the August 2024 Primaries

The primary is finally over, and now the challengers are in place who hope to oust incumbents in key House districts to determine whether Democrats maintain their majority or Republicans regain control.

What started out as a jump ball at the beginning of this year, with Democrats defending a 56-54 majority but enjoying the new term limits law allowing them to run incumbents in all key seats, shifted in June to a Republican advantage. As President Joe Biden’s fortunes sank after his late June debate with former President Donald Trump, expectations built that Republicans would make significant gains to win control.

Now, with Vice President Kamala Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee, moribund Democratic voter enthusiasm has done a 180-degree shift to match the intense Republican voter enthusiasm.

That brings the overall dynamics back to where they were a year ago, with anticipated close races at the top of the ticket for president and U.S. Senate. The decline in voter turnout in the August primary compared to 2020 also could confirm another expectation – reduced voter enthusiasm overall and lower turnout. That could make for a climate somewhere in between 2016 and 2020. The closer to 2016, the better for the Republicans. The closer to 2020, the better for the Democrats.

With all that in mind, here is what Gongwer News Service sees as the districts with the greatest possibility of flipping.

1. CAN CHURCHES SURVIVE A TRUMP WAVE DOWNRIVER? There are a handful of first-term House Democrats holding swing seats who have never had to run with Trump on the ballot and contend with how he brings out low-propensity voters who vote Republican down the rest of the ballot. Rep. Jaime Churches(D-Wyandotte) is at the top of that list. Why?

In 2022, she had Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer leading a tsunami at the top of the ballot in her district, winning 54.5% to 43.8% over Tudor Dixon. That is a massive swing from what happened in 2020 when Trump carried the seat, 51.2% to 47.1% over Biden. And if this year drifts more toward a 2016 environment, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton here that year, 51.5% to 43.5%.

Churches eked out a 1.56 percentage point win in 2022. What happens when Trump heads the ballot, not Whitmer?

The Republican field here wasn’t exactly electrifying. Nobody could raise real money. That said, Rylee Linting of Wyandotte posted a statement-like win in the GOP primary with 71.5% in a three-candidate field. The Republicans will have to spend heavily to help her.

It’s important to remember Downriver voters split their tickets. Then Rep. and now Sen-Darrin Camilleri (D-Brownstown Township) overcame Trump winning his House seat in 2016 and 2020, so it can be done.

2. HAS NATE SHANNON MET HIS MATCH? Rep. Nate Shannon(D-Sterling Heights) has won once before with Trump on the ballot, and he almost surely will have to do so again, considering Trump won this seat by a decided 52.1% to 46.4% over Biden in 2020.

But once you get under the hood, there’s some worry here for the Democrats and potential for the GOP. The Republicans have never fielded a candidate who is both sane and a proven vote-getter. The Republican nominees in 2018 and 2020 were extremists the party abandoned. The 2022 nominee was a solid activist without baggage but unproven at the ballot box.

This year, Republicans have Utica City Councilmember Ron Robinson, a realtor and former radio news reporter. One could argue the Republicans have had a few own goals through the years against Shannon. That shouldn’t happen this year. It will be Shannon’s toughest test yet, with Robinson winning his primary.

3. MENTZER FACES A WOJTOWICZ: A longtime surname in Detroit-area politics is Wojtowicz, after Raymond Wojtowicz’s longtime run as Wayne County treasurer. There’s a sizeable Polish population in Macomb County, and that could give Republican Robert Wojtowicz of Mount Clemens some extra juice against Rep. Denise Mentzer (D-Mount Clemens) as she seeks a second term. Wojtowicz, a member of the Chippewa Valley Schools Board of Trustees, was a bit of a surprise primary winner.

Mentzer is in a similar situation to Churches. She’s running for a second term after a Whitmer-aided victory in 2022 (Whitmer won by 13 percentage points in this district). Trump isn’t quite the force here, however, as he is Downriver. Trump carried the district, 49.5% to 49%, over Biden. The Republicans need this to look more like 2016, when Trump won the seat by 5 points.

4. TURNOUT THE KEY IN MILLER-BINIECKI REMATCH: Will Trump juice turnout in rural areas again? What’s the level of enthusiasm among Black voters for Harris? Those will decide what happens in the rematch between Rep. Reggie Miller (D-Van Buren Township) and Republican Dale Biniecki of Raisinville Township. The Democratic core of the district is in Van Buren Township, Belleville, and Romulus. The Republican core is northwest Monroe County. With a Black population of 16%, that’s a critical Democratic constituency to turn out.

Miller won the first match in 2022, 52.3% to 47.7%, far closer than the 54.8% to 43.9% victory Whitmer had here. This isn’t exactly Trump country, however. Biden carried the seat 49.7% to 48.7%. Clinton even won it (narrowly) in 2016. Republicans, however, are eager to use Miller’s vote to preempt local control of utility-scale solar and wind energy.

Miller has a campaign war chest of $200,000 compared to $32,000 for Biniecki. The GOP will have to spend big to unseat Miller and unlike the first three seats on this list can’t count on Trump to carry the freight. Rematches also tend to favor the winner of the first contest. This will be a good test of how the Democratic agenda of the 2023-24 term plays out.

There was *considerable* debate in the Gongwer offices about where to slot Miller on this list compared to Rep. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette) and Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City), particularly considering candidates waging rematches like Biniecki, who don’t typically fare well. However, Trump’s 2020 vote share here was bigger than in the Hill and Coffia districts, and northwest Monroe County seems more primed than the other two to have a surge in low-propensity Trump voters.

5. IS THIS FINALLY THE YEAR FOR GOP IN MARQUETTE? The Marquette-based 109th District has become the white whale for Republicans. They haven’t won it since the early 1950s. But the Upper Peninsula has moved rightward for the past two decades, and it’s the last Democratic beachhead in the U.P. They have tried, oh, have they tried. However, the city of Marquette remains strongly Democratic, and Northern Michigan University helps anchor that dynamic.

Part of the Republicans’ problem has been candidate quality. They just have not had a bench capable of winning this district. But finally, they have an all-star caliber candidate in Karl Bohnak of Negaunee, a former TV meteorologist well-known throughout the U.P. His victory in Tuesday’s primary makes him the party’s highest-caliber challenger statewide.

Bohnak will try to unseat first-term Rep. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette). Republicans say she’s too liberal for the district. That’s also something they used to say about former Rep. Sara Cambensy; she won this seat multiple times. They are hopeful Hill’s vote to preempt local control on utility-grade solar and wind energy projects will provide an opening. But Hill is raising enormous cash. She’s sitting on $155,000 in her campaign account. Bohnak has been the best of a weak lot of Republican challengers when it comes to fundraising but at least has shown some capability on that front.

The presidential dynamic could be significant. Trump won this district in 2016, 49% to 45.1%. However, his vote share fell to 48.4% in 2020, as Biden won the seat with 50.1% of the vote. Hill won’t have Whitmer winning her district by 12 points like 2022, so she needs Harris to at least hold her own.

This is one of those seats where it’s hard to envision the Republicans actually winning it until they do.

6. TC AND LEELANAU TOO FAR GONE FOR GOP? The closest of the 110 House races in 2022 was here in the 103rd District that covers Traverse City and environs, plus Leelanau County and a slice of Benzie County. Now-Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City) won by 765 votes, 49.84% to 48.47% over then-Rep. Jack O’Malley (R-Lake Ann). Trump will certainly do better than Tudor Dixon did here in 2022 when Whitmer obliterated her, 55.6% to 43%.

But Biden beat Trump here 51.4% to 47% in 2020. Maybe Trump loses to Harris by less within the confines of the district in November, but it’s hard to imagine him winning it and providing any kind of help to the Republican nominee, Lisa Trombley of Traverse City. Further, this district started trending toward the Democrats a decade ago as more and more people from the Detroit and Chicago areas relocated to the region. Leelanau County is generally considered a Democratic county, even if not overwhelming. Traverse City is bright blue. That trend will continue, helping Coffia and hurting Trombley.

Yes, this was the closest race in the state in 2022, but Coffia had to take down O’Malley, who had massive name recognition from his years on the radio. Trombley, while the preferred Republican candidate who won her primary, is a first-time candidate.

Republicans are hoping to leverage Coffia’s voting record against her. Coffia, however, seems to relish the door-to-door work that can help inoculate an incumbent against a tough-to-explain vote.

The GOP has to make a stand here, and television is relatively cheap. If they can’t knock Coffia out now, she’ll probably have the seat through 2034.

7. ULTIMATE FRISBIE VS. HAADSMA: After defeating Republican Dave Morgan by margins of 3.7, 2.6, and 4.5 percentage points in 2018, 2020, and 2022, respectively, Rep. Jim Haadsma(D-Battle Creek) will face a new Republican opponent this year in one of the state’s most competitive seats.

This district, anchored by deep blue Battle Creek on the west and Albion on the east with deep red suburbs and rural areas in between, has slowly been trending Republican in the past decade amid the general rightward shift of Calhoun County. But Haadsma has proven a strong candidate and held it, even in 2020 when President Donald Trump headed the Republican ticket and narrowly carried the district.

Republicans got the candidate they wanted through the primary in Calhoun County Commissioner Steven Frisbie of Battle Creek.

Republicans like to talk about this district as one of the Trump-won seats held by a Democrat, but keep in mind Trump only won it by 475 votes in 2020 – he didn’t exactly provide coattails that year – and Haadsma already has won once with Trump on the ticket. Republicans at least have someone other than Morgan, whose campaigns seemed somnolent at times, to carry their flag.

This is probably the top 50/50 district in the state. It’s flipped six times going back to the 1980s. It will be close again.

8. WHO IS WYOMING’S FAVORITE SON? Next to Bohnak, the top Republican recruit is former Rep. Tommy Brannof Wyoming to take on first-term Rep. John Fitzgerald(D-Wyoming) for the 83rd District that covers southwest Grand Rapids, Wyoming, and a small piece of Byron Township.

It comes down to which favorite son Wyoming prefers. Fitzgerald carried Wyoming – once a Republican bastion – 13,656 to 12,183 in 2022. But in Brann’s last House run in 2020, he carried Wyoming, 18,733 to 16,203. The big difference is that there was no spending for the Democrats in 2020. In 2022, an avalanche of money came to Fitzgerald’s aid. And Fitzgerald was a far stronger candidate than the 2020 Democratic nominee.

Brann has a solid dynamic as a non-ideological Republican and namesake of the Brann’s steakhouses he founded, but Fitzgerald has incumbency and experience at winning tough general election races. And in the question of what Wyoming will do, it’s worth noting that Biden carried the city, 18,799 to 16,339, in 2020 over Trump. However, in 2022, a terrible year for Republicans, Brann got crushed in a challenge to Sen. Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) overall but carried Wyoming, 14,163 to 13,335.

If Brann can’t overcome the Democratic trend in the Grand Rapids suburbs, no one can. Expect both parties to spend a fortune on West Michigan television in this race.

9. SCHMALTZ GETS HER FIRST TEST:Democrats committed one of the all-time blunders in handing their 2022 nomination sight-unseen to a 20-year-old who turned out to have a troubled history Republicans used to force Democrats to abandon the race. That allowed now-Rep. Kathy Schmaltz(R-Jackson) will waltz into the seat by nine percentage points.

Democrats have their act together this year with Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney running as their nominee. Trump won the district 49.1% to 48.9% in 2020, meaning the top of the ticket could wind up a draw and not have much effect down the ballot.

Democrats have so few opportunities to go on offense that they almost have to make a play here.

Mahoney is a top-tier challenger, but if Schmaltz has done the work in her two years, she’ll be tough to beat.

10. TISDEL FACES ANOTHER TEST:Rep. Mark Tisdel(R-Rochester Hills) has to be one of the most capable swing district legislators in recent memory. In 2020, he won his first term even as Biden won his district. Then, in 2022 – get this – he dispatched his Democratic opponent by 1,600 votes, or 3.6 percentage points, even as Whitmer swamped his district by 5,300 votes, or 11.5 percentage points.

Tisdel also is an ardent abortion opponent. Even though Proposal 22-3 to legalize abortion in Michigan passed 59% to 41 in his district, he still won.

Besides Tisdel’s strengths, the problem Democrats have had is that even though the Rochesters are embracing top-of-the-ticket Democrats like Biden and Whitmer, Democrats are still building a bench in a place that for years saw Republicans win by 70+%. Democrats have nominated Trevis Harrold, a U.S. Army Reserve officer with a history of work on congressional staff and in government relations for Dow Chemical Company.

The Rochester/Rochester Hills area is likely the next longtime Republican seat in Oakland to flip to Democrats. But as long as Tisdel is there, he will be tough to unseat.

ON THE WATCHLIST

Democrats are enthused about Janise Robinson of Brownstown taking on Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown) in the 28th District. A special education teacher, she provides a rare chance for Democrats to go on the offense. Thompson did just barely eke out a win in 2022 by 735 votes, or 1.98%. But she pulled that win off even as Whitmer carried her district by 7.6 points. In 2020, Trump carried the district by 5.4 points. How are Democrats going to unseat Thompson, now an incumbent, with Trump providing the wind at her back she didn’t have two years ago?

Rep. Joey Andrews (D-St. Joseph) has a few points in his favor in the 38th District. He’s facing a rematch against the man he beat in 2022, Republican Kevin Whiteford of South Haven. Again, rematches usually favor the person who won the first time. Not only did Biden easily win this seat by 9 points in 2020, but Hillary Clinton won it in 2016. It’s hard to see Trump providing any lift here.

One member who could be vulnerable to a 2016-style environment is Rep. Carol Glanville (D-Walker) in the 84th District. Trump defeated Clinton here, 47.7% to 44.9%. But then Biden swung the district big time, winning it 53.9% to 43.7%. Had Harris not replaced Biden here, perhaps Republican John Wetzel of Grandville would have had a more favorable environment. But this area has swung to the Democrats, and Glanville’s base in Walker, the more Republican portion of the seat, makes it very hard for a GOP candidate to build to 50% plus one.

NOT ON THE LIST

Rep. James DeSana (R-Carleton) in the 29th District. DeSana unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2022, with Whitmer winning his district. This is a Trump +8 district. He’s in even better shape than Thompson.

Rep. Jennifer Conlin (D-Ann Arbor) is probably fine in the 48th District. She won it by 7.3 points in 2022. And Biden won it by 6 points in 2020. Republicans will have to provide enormous financial help to business owner Brian Ignatowski of Pinckney for him to have any shot. It would take a depressed Democratic base in Ann Arbor and a juiced Trump base in Livingston to move this one into play.

Rep. Angela Witwer (D-Delta Township). Witwer has made her 50/50 district look pretty safe for Democrats.

81st District (open seat). Republicans came up short in candidate recruitment, and it’s hard to imagine them spending money on more than two seats in Grand Rapids. If they do, Wetzel in the 84th District is a stronger candidate than what they have here.

Rep. Kelly Breen (D-Novi) and Rep. Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth). It would take a total Democratic collapse to put them in peril.

Rep. Donni Steele (R-Orion Township). It’s Oakland County, so Democrats want to play here, but if Shadia Martini couldn’t win it in 2022 with Whitmer winning the seat by 10 points, how does that change now with Steele an incumbent and a more neutral environment?

Rep. Thomas Kuhn (R-Troy). It’s another rematch. Kuhn beat Aisha Farooqi of Sterling Heights by 5 points in 2022, even with Whitmer carrying the seat by 7 points. This was a Trump +6 seat in 2020.

ROMULUS – Vice President Kamala Harris and her new running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, sought to draw a clear contrast between their ticket and that of Republican former President Donald Trump’s, appealing to Detroit area Democrats with talk of unifying the country and pushing for equal rights if they win the presidency in November.

Harris and Walz spoke to supporters gathered at the Signature Aviation Hangar within the sprawling Detroit Metropolitan Airport on Wednesday, hoping to seize on the momentum that’s built around the campaign with breakneck speed. The stop in metro Detroit on Wednesday was the second of several planned around the nation for the newly minted Democratic Party presidential ticket.

The vice president became the presumptive Democratic Party nominee after President Joe Biden bowed out of the race last month. National polls showed that Biden was trailing behind Trump, but recent polls show that Harris has all but obliterated that lead. Harris and Trump are now tied, according to the Real Clear Politics national polling average.

In Romulus, the massive airport hangar was filled with supporters, elected officials, union members, and young people, displaying the diversity of Harris’ burgeoning coalition. And they weren’t alone, as numerous surrogates gave speeches to fill the time between Harris’ flight from Wisconsin to Michigan.

That included stump speeches from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II, U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing), and every member of the Democratic congressional delegation aside from U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Detroit.

U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell of Ann Arbor – who had become a harbinger of doom for her party after she, in 2016, warned that Democrats could lose Michigan to Trump – said that she proudly feels much better about 2024 contest with Harris at the top of the ticket than she did when Trump was elected and became the first Republican to win the state in a presidential contest since 1988.

When Harris finally took the stage, the crowd was so loud and refused to quiet down that Harris had a hard time getting started, pausing in spurts, which she accepted with appreciative grins.

“The one thing that brings us all out here today is that we love our country, and I do believe the highest form of patriotism is to fight for the idea of America,” Harris said. “It’s how we preserve the promise of America. … In this election, we face a question. What kind of country do we want to live in? A country that values freedom and compassion … or a country of chaos, fear and hate?”

Those were the stakes that Harris posited to the crowd, which the campaign estimated at 15,000 people.

“Do you believe in the power of America? And are you willing to fight for it?” she asked before transitioning to what has become a part of her campaign slogan. “Because when we fight, we win.”

Harris also said that her path to the White House for her runs through Michigan, and that its support could make the difference in the election.

The vice president, with renewed vigor, leveled plenty of attacks against Trump in her short speech. Notably, Harris leaned heavily into her work as a former attorney general and painted herself as the trial prosecutor who could take down the Republican nominee with a lawyer’s precision.

“I know what we’re up against,” she said. “So hear me when I say, Detroit, that I know Donald Trump’s type. … I’ll proudly put my record against his any day of the week.”

As she detailed the various court cases Trump faced and continues to face, the crowed jeered, but Harris turned and said: “The courts are going to handle that, we’ll beat him in November. … We’ll handle that.”

Although jabs at Trump were aplenty, Harris also attempted to frame the campaign in a joyful light.

“Our campaign is not just about us versus Donald Trump. It’s bigger than that,” she said. “Ours is focused on the future, and the other is focused on the past. Here in Michigan, we fight for the future.”

That message was echoed by Walz, who focused on his midwestern values, his family, and personal stories about the issues he and Harris would fight for and protect as vice president and president, respectively.

When talking about reproductive rights, Walz recalled the hardship he and his wife had trying to conceive and the multiple attempts with fertility treatments that eventually gave way to the birth of their daughter, Hope.

Walz said he and Harris would enshrine abortion and reproductive rights for all Americans so they, too, could have the hope of having a child if they wanted and protect the decision to not have a child if the opposite were true.

Harris said that she would always fight for the American people as president.

“She’s taken on predators, fraudsters, and transnational gangs,” Walz said. “She has never hesitated to cross the aisle and find common solutions.”

Walz also threw a few jabs at U.S. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s running mate. Vance appeared Wednesday in Shelby Township for a quick speech and a scrum with Michigan reporters (see separate story).

The governor used his now signature line of calling Trump and Vance, and their political ideas, weird and framed them as a bill of goods that no one asked for.

“Out of all the things that make me mad about the other guys, and out of all the things they do wrong, the one thing that I’ll never forgive them for is that they’re trying to steal joy from this country,” Walz said. “Our next president brings the joy.”

More pointedly, Walz hit Trump’s and Vance’s dedication to the anti-abortion wing of the Republican Party and questioned their commitment to freedom.

“Some of these grey hairs in here remember a Republican Party that used to actually talk about freedom,” Walz said. “These guys, when they talk about freedom, it means the government has the freedom to invade your exam with your doctor.”

Republicans panned the stop by the Democratic top of the ticket.

“Michiganders see Kamala Harris and Tim Walz turning a blind eye to the kitchen table issues giving us heartburn, and that’s why Michigan will send President Trump to the White House in November,” Team Trump Michigan Communications Director Victoria LaCivita said in a statement.

More than $50 million in general election advertising has already been reserved in the Michigan U.S. Senate election battle, ensuring voters’ eyeballs and ears will be bombarded with political attacks over the next three months.

As of Wednesday afternoon, data from AdImpact showed that between Wednesday and Dec. 31, there had been $52.3 million in ad reservations for the U.S. Senate race.

Combined ad reservations from Democratic-aligned groups and U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) as of Wednesday totaled $35.4 million, while Republican groups supporting former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of White Lake have reserved $16.9 million.

Among Democratic groups, WinSenate PAC is the largest spender so far, putting in $17.5 million, followed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee with $9.8 million. Duty and Honor has also reserved $3.8 million.

For GOP-aligned groups, One Nation has reserved $8.4 million for ads, the National Republican Senatorial Committee $7.1 million, and the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund $1.3 million.

Notably, Slotkin’s campaign reserved $4.3 million in ads, which are already running, while the Rogers campaign had not yet reserved ads.

Also, Republican ad reservations are through October 8, while Democratic-aligned advertising runs through the Nov. 5 election.

The spending levels and the dates through which they are scheduled could rapidly change as the bruising general election contest evolves.

Total spending for the U.S. Senate race from Democratic and Republican-aligned groups and the campaigns of the two candidates since Jan. 1 totals $71.3 million, according to Ad Impact.

Since Jan. 1, totaling ad spending and reservations by Democratic groups and Slotkin totals $43 million compared to $24.6 million by Republican groups and Rogers.

As of Wednesday afternoon, at least five campaign ads were already airing in one or more major Michigan media markets for the U.S. Senate.

Slotkin is being painted by conservative groups as a big-spending liberal, tying her to policies that they say have resulted in big government spending, high inflation, unsafe communities, and an insecure southern border.

One Nation issued an ad Wednesday morning targeting Slotkin’s vote for the $1.9 trillion coronavirus pandemic relief package in March 2021, which passed Congress along party lines. The ad is running in the Lansing and Flint media markets.

“Elissa Slotkin’s votes for reckless spending have cost Michigan families thousands,” the ad states.

The NRSC went further in the COVID stimulus attack in its latest ad, which is running in the Grand Rapids and Traverse City markets. It points out the legislation provided federal stimulus checks to prisoners, including former USA Gymnastics doctor Larry Nassar and Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev.

For Rogers, liberal groups are portraying him as a carpetbagger for having lived in Florida after leaving Congress. He’s also being accused of lining his pockets while in office and out of office, as well as being extreme for having voted against the nation’s health care law and abortion rights while in office.

One ad from Slotkin’s campaign amplified this line of attack Democrats have been using against Rogers in recent months. It is running in the Detroit market.

The DSCC on Tuesday launched an ad against Rogers, echoing the Slotkin campaign’s attacks. It is running in the Flint, Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Traverse City markets.

“Rogers made millions, and now he wants to be senator so he can cash in again,” the ad states.

Duty and Honor launched the lone positive ad of recent days, backing Slotkin. It focuses on her national security background and touts her work in Congress. It is running in the Detroit market.

Tuesday’s primary saw two incumbents fall in the House, with voters in the 107th and 50th Districts deciding that their current representatives will not have the opportunity to return to Lansing next term.

Parker Fairbairn of Harbor Springs defeated Rep. Neil Friske (R-Charlevoix) in the 107th House District by a wide margin.

Friske’s race was expected to be close, but ultimately, it was a runaway.

Fairbairn won 10,689 votes to Friske’s 6,260. In the lead-up to the primary, Fairbairn received several endorsements over Friske and outspent him in campaigning. Friske was also arrested in Lansing at the end of June, which was widely reported by state and local media. He has yet to be formally charged.

During his campaign, Fairbairn focused on Friske’s ultra-conservative voting record and lack of committee assignments, saying that Friske was failing to get anything done for the district in Lansing.

In a post to X, formerly Twitter, Friske responded to the election loss Wednesday morning.

“The people of the 107th have spoken, and now it falls upon us to accept the unfortunate outcome,” he wrote. “In Lansing, where conformity often overshadows conviction, I’ve made it my mission to stand firm on principles that matter – principles that I feel are essential to conservatives. It’s not about seeking approval or popularity; rather, embodying integrity and serving the people of the 107th District … It is evident that God has a different plan for my life. Therefore, I look forward with anticipation to following His leading down whatever path he puts before me.”

Rep. Bob Bezotte Jr. (R- Howell) also fell to a primary challenger during Tuesday’s election.

The incumbent, who was out of the race and back in it this year, was defeated by primary challenger Jason Woolford, whom Bezotte originally endorsed before deciding to run for reelection.

The race was close. With more than all precincts reporting, Bezotte brought in 4,247 votes to Woolford’s 4,723 votes, according to unofficial election results.

Other incumbents held on despite close races.

In the 3rd House District, Rep. Alabas Farhat survived his primary challenge. Despite early numbers showing him behind former Dearborn City Commissioner Ziad Abdulmalik, Farhat retook the lead in the Dearborn portion of the district and led in Detroit to secure his candidacy.

Apart from Friske, the ultra-conservative members of the House crushed their primary challengers.

Rep. Josh Schriver (R-Oxford) won in Oakland County and came out ahead in the Macomb County portions of the 66th House District. With all precincts reporting, Schriver won 8,494 votes to challenger Randy LeVasseur‘s 4,414, according to unofficial election results.

In the 51st House District, Rep. Matt Maddock similarly cruised to victory despite early and intense campaigning from primary opponent Kevin Ziegler. With all of the precincts reporting, Maddock won 6,205 votes, which was equal to Ziegler’s 4,354 votes, according to unofficial election results.

Another ultra-conservative member of the House, Rep. Steve Carra (R-Three Rivers), also had an easy victory Tuesday night. Carra won 9,267 votes in the Republican primary, or about 69% of the vote. His two primary opponents together won about 31% of the vote, with Frank Perez winning 2,755 votes and Michael Malmborg winning 1,470, according to unofficial election results.

Overall, incumbents with primaries did well in their districts and will be on the ballot in November.

Rep. Gina Johnsen (R-Lake Odessa) easily swatted away a primary challenger from the right in the 78th House District. She took more than 70% of the vote, winning 8,032 votes compared to ultra-conservative Jon Rocha, who won 3,438.

In the 109th, Rep. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette) skated away with the Democratic primary despite having several opponents. She won 80% of the vote, with 9,639 votes. Her next closest opponent, Randy Girard, took just 15% of the vote, with 1,889.

The primary challenge from former Warren mayor James Fouts against current Rep. Mike McFall (D-Hazel Park) failed – massively.

McFall will be on the ballot in November with a high likelihood of returning to Lansing next term, while Fouts’ bid to return to political office has come up short.

McFall beat Fouts decidedly across the district, even in Warren, where Fouts served as mayor for more than a decade. McFall won 6,491 votes to Fouts’ 2,648. McFall also spent considerably less than Fouts on the primary and is headed toward November with about $48,000 cash on hand.

The two newest members of the House on the primary ballot, Rep. Mai Xiong (D-Warren) in the 13th House District and Rep. Peter Herzberg (D-Westland) in the 25th House District, also secured their primary bids.

Xiong rolled with a whopping 71% of the vote in the 13th House District. Her opponent, former state representative, and Roseville Clerk Richard Steenland, took a tiny 19% of the vote. Xiong won every precinct in Roseville.

Herzberg beat out several other Democrats on the ticket, with his main competition being Layla Taha, who, like Herzberg, ran for the seat during the special election in April. Herzberg held on, winning 53.1% of the vote compared to 31.5% of the vote for Taha, according to unofficial election results.

In the 5th House District, Rep. Regina Weiss (D-Oak Park) won just under 50% of the vote in the Democratic primary. She took 6,565 votes to her opponent Crystal Bailey‘s 5,354 votes, according to unofficial election results and with about 70% of precincts reporting.

House Speaker Joe Tate (D-Detroit) breezed through his primary challenge. He took 74% of the vote, beating out primary challenger Lory Parks with 7,626 votes to 2,002 votes.

Across the aisle, Minority Leader Rep. Matt Hall (R-Richland Township) also easily defeated his primary opponent.

With all precincts reporting, Hall won about 64% of the vote, or 6,220 votes compared to challenger Rich Cutshaw‘s 3,516.

In recent weeks, PACs, including Young Americans for Liberty, spent significant amounts of money running negative ads against Hall for his votes on gun control legislation, but based on unofficial election results, they did little to sway the electorate.

Rep. Brian BeGole (R-Antrim Township) easily won his primary in the 71st House District, securing 6,129 votes compared to his opponent, Kevin Rathburn’s 2,947, according to unofficial election results and with about 85% of precincts reporting.

Similarly, Rep. Emily Dievendorf (D-Lansing) won their primary, trouncing opponent Angela Matthews. Dievendorf won 6,273 votes to Matthews’ 3,187 votes, according to unofficial election results.

Rep. Cam Cavitt (R-Cheboygan) will also be back on the ballot for the 106th House District in November. He secured his primary, winning 58% of the vote. Cavitt won 10,043 votes compared to his opponent, Todd Smalenberg, who won 7,175.

In the 28th House District, Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown Township) easily took her primary. She won with more than 90% of the vote, crushing Beth Socia with 2,856 votes to Socia’s 338, according to unofficial election results, and with 45% of precincts in the district reporting.

Several other incumbents also faced primary challengers and won, including Rep. Tyrone Carter (D-Detroit) in the 1st House District, Rep. Natalie Price (D-Berkley) in the 6th District, Rep. Helena Scott (D-Detroit) in the 8th District, Rep. Veronica Paiz (D-Harper Woods) in the 10th District, Rep. Kimberly Edwards (D-Eastpointe) in the 12th House District, Rep. Stephanie Young (D-Detroit) in the 16th District, Rep. Dylan Wegela (D-Garden City) in the 26th District, Rep. Doug Wozniak in the 59th, Rep. Phil Green (R-Watertown Township) in the 67th District, Rep. Cynthia Neeley (D-Flint) in the 70th District, Rep. Joseph Fox (R-Fremont) in the 101st District, Rep. John Roth (R-Interlochen) in the 104th District and Rep. Ken Borton (R-Gaylord) in the 105th

Tuesday’s primary also decided the contenders for seats that will be open in November, which lean comfortably Democratic or Republican.

In the 64th House District, Joe Pavlov, former teacher and cousin of former Sen. Phil Pavlov, narrowly won the Republican primary. The seat is in a safe Republican district currently represented by Rep. Andrew Beeler (R-Port Huron).

Pavlov won a close race, where he beat out St. Clair County Commissioner Jorja Baldwin and former Rep. Gary Eisen.

With all precincts reporting, Pavlov won 3,793 votes to Baldwin’s 3,581 votes. Eisen came in third, just behind Baldwin, with 3,401 votes.

Elsewhere across the state, Matt Longjohn will be the Democratic candidate looking to fill outgoing Rep. Christine Morse‘s seat in the 40th House District in November.

With about 23% of precincts reporting, Longjohn had 1,642 votes, or about 71%. The other Democratic candidate, Lisa Brayton, had just 682 votes, or about 29%, according to unofficial election results.

Tonya Myers Phillips of Detroit handily won the Democratic primary in the 7th House District, which will be an open seat in November because Rep. Abraham Aiyash (D-Hamtramck) is not seeking reelection. Myers Phillips has 65% of the vote, with about 15% of the district reporting.

For the open seat in the 33rd House District, Morgan Foreman won the Democratic primary. Foreman – a legislative staffer for Rep. Felicia Brabec (D-Pittsfield Township), who currently holds the seat – beat out Rima Mohammad, a trustee for Ann Arbor Public Schools. Foreman won 11,258 votes compared to Mohammad’s 5,572 votes, according to unofficial election results.

Tuesday’s election also set up some of the state’s most competitive general election House races.

Adam Stathakis of Livonia will run on the Republican ticket against Rep. Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth) in the 22nd House District. Stathakis, a business owner from Livonia, won 71.5% of the Republican primary vote, beating out Christian Charette.

In the 27th House District, Rylee Linting will run against Rep. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte). Linting won 4,904 votes compared to her opponent Cody Dill‘s 1,346.

The 38th House District is set to be a rematch between Rep. Joey Andrews (D-St. Joseph) and Kevin Whiteford, who lost to Andrews in 2022. Whiteford, who faced a rematch in the primary against George Lucas, won 4,007 votes to Lucas’s 3,228, with 84% of precincts reporting.

For the first time in several election cycles, Rep. Jim Haadsma (D-Battle Creek) will face off against a new Republican opponent. Calhoun County Commissioner Steven Frisbie decisively won the Republican primary in the 44th House District, coming away with 2,197 votes. His next closest opponent, Alexander Harris, a gym owner out of Albion, won just 518 votes.

Republican Brian Ignatowski comfortably won his primary in the 48th House district with 5,677 votes compared to Tawn Beliger‘s 2,746 votes. Ignatowski will take on Rep. Jennifer Conlin (D-Ann Arbor) in November.

The race for the 55th House District is now set, too, with Trevis Harrold winning the Democratic primary for the chance to take on Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills) in November. Harrold won 4,859 votes to Alexander Hawkins’s 4,347 votes, according to unofficial election results.

The race for the 57th House District will be a rematch of 2022. Aisha Farooqi won the Democratic primary with 70% of the vote, according to unofficial election results, and will once again run against Rep. Tom Kuhn (R-Troy) in the general.

Ron Robinson of Utica defeated Roger Goodrich of Sterling Heights in the 58th House District Republican primary to take on Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) in November. Robison came out of the primary with 2,517 votes compared to Goodrich’s 1,178 votes.

One of the few races too close to call as of 4 a.m. Wednesday was the Republican primary to see who will take on Rep. Denise Mentzer (D-Mount Clements) in the 61st District. Robert Wojtowicz and Russ Cleary were only 56 votes apart, with Wojtowicz in the lead with just 33% of precincts reporting.

In the 84th House District, Republican John Wetzel will challenge Rep. Carol Glanville (D-Walker). Wetzel won more than 87% of the vote with 6,425 votes to Ben June’s 937.

In the 103rd, Lisa Trombley is set to take on Rep. Besty Coffia (D-Traverse City). Prior to the primary, Republicans following the race said that Trombley was a good fit for the district, which is bound to make the race for the seat Coffia flipped in 2022 competitive. Trombley won 62.5% of the votes in Tuesday’s Republican primary, beating Katie Kniss 9,032 votes to 4,503.

On the Republican side in the 109th House District, former TV meteorologist Karl Bohnak won his primary, securing about 71% of the vote, according to unofficial election results. Bohnak won 2,846 votes, and Burt Mason, who finished second, won 792. Melody Wagner won 354. Bohnak will face Hill in the general election.

After the conclusion of Tuesday’s U.S. House primaries, competitive general election races are taking shape in the 8th, 10th, and 3rd Districts, which are expected to be expensive and critical for both Republicans and Democrats in the coming months.

Unlike the 7th District, where there was no contest for the Democratic and Republican nominations, and the Tom Barrett vs. Curtis Hertel Jr. contest has been known for some time, there was still some question about who would face off in the other three.

U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) declared victory in the 13th District Democratic primary over Mary Waters. With 144 of 391 precincts reporting, Thanedar had a 54% to 34% lead. Waters tied Thanedar in the Detroit portions of the district that had reported. She needed to win the city by a big number to overcome Thanedar’s strength in the suburbs.

The stage is set for Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and Republican Paul Junge of Fenton to compete for retiring U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee‘s (D-Flint) seat in the 8th District. Both emerged decisively from their primaries.

With 83% of the precincts reporting, McDonald Rivet earned 55% of the Democratic primary vote, followed by former Flint mayor Matt Collier at 25% and State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh at 20%. Junge clobbered Mary Draves with 75% to her 15%.

Speaking to union members at her election night party in Saginaw, McDonald Rivet thanked campaign volunteers and supporters and drew a contrast between herself and Junge, who has largely self-funded his campaign.

“I am honored by your trust and excited to be your nominee. Now, we move forward to November, and the choice is clear,” McDonald Rivet said. “While I have deep roots in our communities and a proven, bipartisan record of lowering costs for mid-Michiganders, Paul Junge is trying for a third time to use his trust fund to buy our U.S. House seat. He doesn’t know us, and he does not understand families who work hard to make ends meet.”

Junge lost a 2020 bid for a different district and a 2022 challenge to Kildee.

Kildee joined McDonald Rivet at the rally and reiterated his endorsement of her candidacy.

“The people of mid-Michigan have spoken, and they want Kristen McDonald Rivet to be their next Representative in Congress,” Kildee said in a statement. “The choice in this election is a choice between two very different paths – Kristen, who is a lifelong Michigander who raised her six kids in this community, versus her Republican opponent, a California trust-fund millionaire who is not from here but is trying for a third time to buy a seat in Congress.”

Collier outspent McDonald Rivet but had little to show for it, struggling to stay ahead of Pugh, who had little money.

Junge declared victory shortly before midnight on Tuesday and attributed his victory to his staunch support of former President Donald Trump, who endorsed him, and conservative policy stances on issues like immigration and what he called the failed economic policies of the Biden-Harris administration.

“I am grateful voters responded to my commitment to secure the border, rebuild our economy, and take on the many failures in Washington DC,” Junge said in a statement. “Our country is headed in the wrong direction, and I will use my experience in the Trump administration securing the border as a criminal prosecutor and business owner to fight hard for the people of Mid-Michigan.”

Draves had tried to seize on some Republican sentiment not to give Junge a third shot at a swing district and had some resources but could not compete with the $2 million Junge spent on advertising.

The National Republican Congressional Committee voiced support for Junge quickly after he declared victory.

“Congratulations to Paul Junge on his primary election victory. As a job creator and criminal prosecutor, Junge has a proven ability to deliver results and fight for Mid-Michiganders,” NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said. “Kristen McDonald Rivet is a self-serving, partisan politician who will trade the best interests of her constituents for her extreme far left agenda.”

Close GOP primary in MI-03 ends in Hudson victory.

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) will face Paul Hudson of East Grand Rapids in the 3rd U.S. House District in November after Hudson emerged victorious from what ended up being the most nail-biting primary of Tuesday night.

Scholten cruised to a victory over her primary challenger, Salim Al-Shatel, with 90% of the vote to Al-Shatel’s 9%. After hours of back-and-forth between Hudson and another Republican candidate, Michael Markey, Hudson won 55% of the vote and 100% of the vote reported.

Marlinga-James rematch set in MI-10.

The 10th U.S. House District will see a rematch between Carl Marlinga and U.S. Rep. John James come November after Marlinga beat out three other Democrats to win his party’s nomination Tuesday night.

Marlinga declared victory just before midnight, thanking those who worked on his primary campaign and the voters in the 10th District for giving him a second opportunity to take on James, who he lost to in 2022.

“I am deeply honored by the trust and confidence the voters have placed in me. This victory belongs to all of us who believe in a future where every Michigander has the opportunity to thrive,” Marlinga said in a statement. “We have a lot of work to do, and I am ready to roll up my sleeves and get to it. I invite everyone in MI-10 to join our movement and help us create the change we want to see in our district and our nation.”

With 70% of the precincts reporting, Marlinga won 47% of the vote, followed by his primary competitors Diane Young, with 26.5%, Emily Busch, with 14% of the vote, and State Board of Education member Tiffany Tilley with 13%.

Other noteworthy results included the 1st U.S. House District’s Democratic primary, where newcomer Callie Barr, of Traverse City, defeated Bob Lorinser of Marquette, who ran unsuccessfully for the seat in 2022. Barr, who won 58% of the vote, will face U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Watersmeet), a secure incumbent. Bergman crushed his primary opponent and is a huge favorite in November.

In the 4th District, U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland) easily defeated his primary challenger, Brendan Muir. His general election opponent, Democrat Jessica Swartz of Kalamazoo, was unopposed in her primary.

U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) won her primary against Ahmed Ghanim of Ferndale with 87% of the vote.