July 17, 2026 | This Week in Government: The Top 10 House Seats Most Likely to Flip

Much has happened since Gongwer News Service’s first edition of the House seats most likely to flip in 2026. Mainly, the fields are fully set with candidates filing for office, and the environment continues to develop in way that looks increasingly positive for Democrats and ominous for Republicans.

Another key change compared to the January list is down-ballot Democrats don’t have to worry about former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running for governor without party affiliation.

Some of the factors explored when making the January list have further exploded, mainly, Democrats overperforming in elections across the country. And it’s not just in other states. In Michigan, Sen. Chedrick Greene, D-Saginaw, won what was considered a competitive seat in the 35th Senate District by almost 20 points.

There are still the competing elements of, on one hand, the political party that holds the White House tends to suffer in the midterm election, but, on the other hand the state tends to want to change parties in control of state government after a governor serves two terms.

In 2026, of course, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term limited, and voters will be selecting a new governor. How these competing trends interact is an open question. However, when Duggan dropped out, he noted the anger among Democrats was building, and that was a key reason he stepped aside.

So, there are some changes in our top 10, and for now, there are more Republican-held seats than Democratic on the list. Part of that is because the Republicans flipped multiple Democratic-held seats in 2024, and those will be tested this year. Additionally, the overall environment gives Democrats at least the appearance of a boost.

Here’s where we stand:

1. Northern Oakland County’s 54thDistrict stays up top (unchanged): The 54thHouse District, open because Rep. Donni Steele, R-Orion Township, is running for Senate, remains the top choice.

Although Steele has won comfortably, the seat has a 50/50 nature, and with it being an open seat in a year the environment is favoring Democrats, it has prime flipping opportunity. The county in general has been trending more Democratic, and that’s a boost for the party, too.

Republicans have a primary: Jeffrey Omtvedt of Bloomfield Hills, a former Oxford Township trustee (a community that is notably not in the district), is up against recent college graduate Roman Gaskey of Orion Township.

Democrat Sarah Pounds of Lake Orion has no primary. Democrats are excited about her, and she has a slew of endorsements from election officials around Oakland County and groups like EMILY’s List and the UAW.

2. Rematch in the 44th(unchanged):Republican Rep. Steve Frisbie’s defeat of Democratic incumbent former Rep. Jim Haadsma was the closest race in 2024 as Frisbie took over the 44th House District.

Haadsma is back to run for this Battle Creek-area seat. One could argue he didn’t leave, launching a campaign to seek the seat again almost immediately.

This area has traditionally gone back and forth. It’s a test of the area and Frisbie. Was Haadsma’s loss mostly tied to the top of the ticket, or something else?

This seat went from Trump +1 in 2020 to Trump +4 in 2024. Whitmer won it by 8 points in 2022, a little better than her 7-point win in 2018. Republican U.S. Senate candidates each won it by a couple points in 2020 and 2024.

3. Another rematch downriver in the 27th(unchanged): The last of the list that remains unchanged from January is the 27thHouse District, where Rep. Rylee Linting, R-Wyandotte, is seeking her second term.

Former Rep. Jaime Churches, D-Wyandotte, whom Linting unseated in 2024, is back for a rematch.

Linting has received key bills as a Republican lawmaker and spoken out against leadership on the work project cuts, which voters in the 27th District may appreciate. It is also a seat where Trump was +8.5 in 2024, while Mike Rogers only carried it by 3.7 points over now-U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin. And it was Whitmer +11 in 2022.

Between the environment, Sen. Darrin Camilleri, D-Trenton, on the ballot this year and Churches reputation as a hard worker, Linting could have a challenging reelection campaign ahead of her. She won by 4.23 points in 2024, though, and Republicans have certainly been preparing for to keep this seat since Nov. 6, 2024 (the day after the election).

4. Will Marquette stay red? (up from 6): The question in the 109thHouse District is if Rep. Karl Bohnak’s win in 2024 was the potentially inevitable shift of this Upper Peninsula district to the GOP, or was it solely fueled by the environment and issues that plagued former Rep. Jennifer Hill.

The rest of the U.P. is solid GOP territory. But Marquette has been the blue dot and has helped the 109th House District stay with Democrats until Bohnak, R-Deerton, who is well known from his career as a TV weather forecaster, knocked off a Democratic incumbent in 2024.

Democrats have a new candidate here and avoided a crowded primary. Anna Aho Rink, a former physician’s assistant at the Marquette Planned Parenthood before it closed, is set to take on Bohnak in November.

This district was Harris +0.2 points, Slotkin +1 and Whitmer +12. It’s up on the list because of the environment and the open question about the shift.

5. Will a better candidate give Dems a better shot in Jackson? (up from 7):Coming in at number five is the 46thHouse District, currently held by Rep. Kathy Schmaltz, R-Jackson.

Schmaltz, who is campaigning for her third term, already had solid name recognition before she took office, given her previous work in local news. Although she’s won the seat a couple of times, she’s never been tested in a midterm with lower voter turnout.

In 2022, the Democratic candidate, Maurice Imhoff, dropped out of the race in October after reports of past threats against schools and an alleged assault of a police officer surfaced. Schmaltz easily won the seat with 54% of the vote over her opponent’s 45%.

During 2024, her first year running as an incumbent, President Donald Trump was on the top of the ticket, making the environment for Republicans strong. Her opponent, Jackson Mayor Daniel Mahoney, faced criticism for lyrics on old mixtapes and problems with financial paperwork for his 501(c)(3) nonprofit.

This cycle, Schmaltz will face a strong Democratic candidate, Jan Maino, who lives outside of Jackson proper. This is also the first time Schmaltz will run against another woman. Maino is president of the East Jackson School Board and a mental health therapist. Her husband has union ties as an IBEW electrician.

6. Republicans have a head start in campaigning for Miller’s open seat (down from 4):Next on the list is the 31stHouse District. The seat is currently held by Rep. Reggie Miller, D-Van Buren Township, but after she announced she would not seek reelection days before the filing deadline, it became an open race.

The district is trending Republican. Miller won the seat with 52% of the vote in 2022 with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at the top of the ticket. She only just held on in 2024 in a rematch race during a better year for Republicans, taking 50.64% of the vote to her opponents 49.36%.

The Republican candidate this cycle, Laura Perry, has been campaigning for more than a year and has a substantial war chest. During the last campaign finance period, she raised more than $11,528 and ended up with $60,510 cash-on-hand.

Despite Miller’s late decision, Democrats had a viable candidate on hand: Milan City Councilmember Shannon Dare Wayne. She serves on the Michigan Technological University Board of Trustees and was appointed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2024. She has worked at Ford Motor Company for 30 years and is also an adjunct professor at Lawrence Technological University.

Perry has a big head start on Wayne for campaigning, but Wayne is a known quantity in the district and has name recognition and the backing of Miller, which should give her a leg up in a year where Democrats have momentum.

7. Which way will Downriver swing during a good year for Dems?: Another potentially flippable seat is the 28thHouse District, held by Rep. Jamie Thompson, R-Brownstown Township.

In January, Gongwer kept Thomspon’s seat off the list. The district is one that Democrats have had their eye on the last few cycles, but to no avail.

One boost for Democrats in a district that is a reach is their candidate, Brownstown Township Supervisor Sherry Berecz. That’s a strong candidate for Democrats, but the district tilts GOP. Thompson won reelection hands down in 2024 with an 8.7-point victory. The district was Trump +12 and Rogers +7.

Thompson, who is running for her third term, seems to be a good fit for her district, and she engages regularly with voters online, through TikToks and other posts to social media that come off as accessible and relatable.

Things have changed in the last eight months, though, with rising prices at the gas pump and a deeply unpopular war with Iran, which makes the environment for Republicans more of an uphill climb.

Although the district voted for Trump and Rogers, it was also a +7 victory for Whitmer in 2022, meaning that with the right conditions and candidate, voters there are willing to vote for a Democrat.

Thomspon has also recently found herself at the center of some Lansing drama. Fellow Republican Caucus member, Rep. Jim DeSana attacked her and made disparaging remarks about her family.

The controversy made waves within the Lansing bubble and the Macomb County Republican Party, but the current was running in Thompson’s favor. It’s also unclear whether the spat was enough to leave any impression on voters who aren’t already dialed in on Lansing politics.

8. Robinson solid, but untested: Number eight on Gongwer’s flip list is the 58thHouse District, held by Rep. Ron Robinson, R-Utica.

This seat was previously on the watchlist, but given the environment, it has crept up into the top 10.

Robinson flipped his seat in 2024, but overall, seems like a good fit and a safe bet for the district. He unseated a Democratic incumbent by more than 6 points in 2024, and the district tilts Republican – it was Trump +12, Rogers +8. Robinson is also one of the few House Republicans with something tangible to campaign on in his district, given his hands-on work with securing money for the Selfridge National Guard Airbase.

His opponent is Katrina Manetta, a first-time candidate with experience in community organizing. She’ll have an uphill climb but given the environment for Dems and this is Robinson’s first time defending the seat, flipping the seat back to blue is not outside the realm of possibility.

9. With time to campaign and someone on the ballot, Dems have a shot in the 68th:New to the flip list and coming in at number nine is Rep. David Martin’s 68th House District seat.

During the first half of 2024, Democrats had a strong candidate with former Rep. Tim Sneller running for the seat, and it was ripe to flip. With Sneller’s untimely passing in July of that year, though, the party found itself in a scramble. Matt Schlinker, who is running this year in the Democratic primary for the district, had to run a write-in campaign.

The district was Trump +10, Rogers +6, but Whitmer +6 in 2022. And despite a strong year for Republicans with Trump on the ticket in 2024 and a run against a write-in candidate, Martin, R-Davison, only pulled away with 54% of the vote, which was the same as his margin in 2022.

Although Schlinker must make it through the Democratic primary in August– he faces Isaiah Grays, a 21-year-old who interned for U.S. Rep. John James, R-Shelby Township, and U.S. Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Bruce Township– he won 45% of the vote in the 2022 general as a write-in candidate.

Despite being a two-time incumbent, with the right Democratic wave, Martin may find himself with a fight on his hands.

10. Will Bay City revert to blue? Rounding out the top 10 is the 96thHouse District, which is held by Rep. Timmy Beson, R-Bay City.

Beson is a three-time incumbent who is well known in his district, but the winds in Tri-City region may be shifting after years of moving toward Republicans.

Earlier this year, Sen. Chedrick Greene, D-Saginaw, thrashed his Republican opponent in a special election for the 35th Senate District with a 19-point victory.

Granted, Republicans did not invest in their candidate, Jason Tunney, and the districts are not the same. But there is overlap.

In 2022, Beson easily carried conservative Monitor Township. In a much smaller turnout in May, Greene won the community. Was that a fluke or a sign of trouble for Beson?

The district has also voted for other Democrats in recent years, sending U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald-Rivet, D-Bay City, to the Michigan Senate in 2022, and then on to Congress in 2024. It was also Witmer +6, Benson +11 and Nessel +4 in 2022.

Beson has never been challenged by a strong Democratic candidate, but this year, he will face Bay City Mayor Christopher Girard, who will come with name recognition Beson’s previous opponents did not.

Watchlist

All of these seats (listed in district number order) are a reach but under the right circumstances could flip.

Rep. Mai Xiong, D-Warren (13th District): Xiong had a close call in 2024, thanks to her district that has a unique number of votes solely motivated to vote with Trump on the ballot.

She won by 4.5 percentage points, 50.8% to 46.3%, over the Republican. That would, in theory, make her a prime target for this year, especially with her views a bit left of voters in her southern Macomb County district.

But this district is a totally different animal in a midterm without Trump on the ballot. Whitmer won it by 19 points in 2022 (compared to Trump winning it by 2 points in 2024). In a midterm with this environment, Xiong should be safe.

Rep. Mark Tisdel, R-Rochester Hills (55th District): Tisdel fits the district well. He has three wins under his belt and was a longtime local official before arriving at the Capitol. Yes, Democrats have an interesting candidate in military veteran Alex Hawkins and it’s looking like a Democratic wave year, but Tisdel has survived that before, winning in 2022 even as Whitmer carried the district by 11 points. The Rochesters are the definition of purple, vote the candidate. And voters have chosen Tisdel time after time.

Rep. Tom Kuhn, R-Troy (57th District): This is based purely on environment. Kuhn clobbered his Democratic opponent in 2024 by 14.5 points. It’s a Sterling Heights-based district (with a bit of Troy and a skosh of Madison Heights). Trump was a force here in 2024, winning the seat by 19 points. Whitmer carried it by 7 points in 2022, however, and this time Kuhn isn’t facing the far-left Aisha Farooqi, who comes out of the Democratic Socialists of America. He’ll be up against attorney and military veteran Tom Turner, who provides a better contrast on paper in this district. Still, the Kuhn name has been potent in the Detroit suburbs for decades, and the idea of someone losing reelection two years after winning by almost 15 points is a reach.

Rep. Denise Mentzer, D-Mount Clemens (61st District): Why Republicans gave Mentzer a free pass in 2024 is unclear. They put little to no resources into their candidate Robert Wojotowicz. Then, on the strength of Trump in the seat, Wojtowicz only lost 50.7% to 49.3%. Wojtowicz is back for another try, but he has to beat John Grossenbacher in the primary first. Hard to imagine the Republicans can unseat Mentzer in this environment, but on paper, it would be an interesting district to play offense. They probably missed their shot in 2024.

Rep. Angela Witwer, D-Delta Township (76th District): If past is prologue, it will be close, about 4 or 5 points, but Witwer will win a fifth term.

Rep. Nancy DeBoer, R-Holland (86th District): How glad are the Republicans to have the more centrist DeBoer, a former Holland mayor, here to secure this seat as the Democratic tide in Holland grows? It’s also wild to even write that sentence about an area where a Republican used to win with 75% of the vote not that long ago.

At the top of the ticket, this district couldn’t be closer (Harris +0.4, Rogers +2, Whitmer +1). But even as Harris actually won the district, DeBoer won reelection in 2024 by 12.2 points, 56.1% to 43.9%. That’s not close. And Democrats are going to have to find some real magic to unseat her this year, even with a wave.

For their candidate, Joseph McClusky, to have any shot, the Democratic nominee for governor is going to have to carry this seat by at least 6 points. Even still, DeBoer will be extremely difficult to dislodge.

Not on the list

We’re removing one district from our first list this year and two others from the first watchlist. We’re also noting a district that was not on any version of the first list – and is neither top 10 nor watchlist here – but has been the subject of some chatter in town.

22nd District: Now held by Rep. Matt Koleszar, D-Plymouth, the seat is open this year with Koleszar running for the Senate. In January, we slotted the district at No. 9. As an open seat in a district that is competitive on paper, that was enough to merit that spot.

But with the Democratic surge nationally, plus the nearly decade-long trend toward Democrats in northwest Wayne County, and the midterm factor that favors Democrats, a Republican flip here no longer looks plausible. Democrats have a strong candidate: Lisa McIntyre, a member of the Northville school board. The Republican, Casey Noce, is a teacher, with some experience in politics, having run a campaign for former Rep. Bronna Kahle in Lenawee County and served on the county party’s executive committee there.

48th and 103rd Districts: Our first watchlist included Rep. Jennifer Conlin, D-Ann Arbor, and Rep. Betsy Coffia, D-Traverse City. Conlin had a closer than expected race in 2024, and Coffia was there on the possibility Republicans might find a strong candidate in an area that only recently has swung Democratic.

The Democratic environment takes these off the lists. Conlin’s district went for Vice President Kamala Harris by 5 points in 2024 and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer by 14 points in 2022. It’s hard to imagine it swinging Republican in this environment, even as she has a rematch against Republican Brian Ignatowski, who ran better than expected in 2024. Meanwhile, Republicans were unable to find a top tier candidate against Coffia, and in a district that was Harris +10 and Whitmer +13 – and where Coffia has two high-profile wins notched – there’s no way.

42nd District: Our last entry for “not on the list” is House Speaker Matt Hall, R-Richland Township.

Hall’s 42nd House District in southern and eastern Kalamazoo County, plus a bit of Allegan County, is a Republican-tilting district – Trump won it by 10 points in 2024. But it’s not overwhelmingly GOP. Whitmer won it by 2 points in 2022, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson won it by 6.

Although these areas of Kalamazoo County have not swung as rapidly Democratic as western portions of the county, like Portage, Texas Township and Oshtemo, they have swung. Analysis from the Redistricter platform shows that from the 2014 to 2022 governor elections, there was a 20-point swing toward Democrats. Of note, in presidential years, the swing toward Democrats was just 3 points.

Speakers are a favorite target of the opposition party. Ask former Speakers Jase Bolger and Lew Dodak, who was the last speaker to lose reelection, in 1992. Democrats spent a pile of cash in 2012 to knock off Bolger. They failed in those endeavors, but both speakers had to spend time and money to run reelection bids, time away from campaigning for their frontline members.

Democrats have two candidates, Nick Rowe and Bill Korb. Rowe is an Air Force veteran. Korb has Army experience.

Democrats obviously would dearly love to oust Hall or at least force him to spend time in his district. But this district is a huge reach, Hall is a clear favorite, and there’s not much of a concentrated Democratic base here to activate.

The Bolger try in 2012 also was seen as having backfired on Democrats. They spent a fortune to beat him and lost in a year when they gained seats during the Obama reelection wave. A lot of people wondered whether they might have won majority had they spent those funds in more winnable areas.

The possibility of another attempt to take out the king is buzzing around the Capitol community. For now, this seat doesn’t belong on this list.

The Gordie Howe International Bridge is scheduled to open to traffic on July 27, officials from the United States and Canada announced during the weekend.

Officials said Canada and the U.S. agreed to “a series of cooperative measures focused on toll governance and transparency, as well as investments in the region, including through the establishment of a 15-year economic development fund tied to a portion of profits from bridge operations.”

The Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority will also work with the U.S. on toll-rate adjustments, a statement said.

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump said he would not allow the bridge to open. He argued the U.S. got a bad deal, although Canada paid for the bridge in its entirety. Officials attempted to open the bridge to traffic a month ago, but it was delayed as talks continued.

Trump posted on social media that he will allow the bridge to open on July 27, saying the U.S. received a much better deal.

“The original deal made was unacceptable to me! The new deal is great and fair,” he wrote.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in a statement said the bridge has “always been a great deal for our state.”

“Thousands of Michigan workers built this critical bridge, which will speed up auto production, lower costs, ease traffic, strengthen agriculture, and give people on both sides of the border better-paying jobs and brighter futures. I’m proud to have fought for its opening and congratulate my partners who have worked on this issue alongside me for years,” she said. “This bridge is a testament to the enduring partnership between Michigan and Canada and what we can get done when we think big and bet on our shared future together. Thank you to our allies in Canada and to the Michiganders who advocated for years to get this done. Let’s keep working together to build a bright future for Michigan and Canada.”

In a budget where economic development funds and policy were up in the air, the finalized deal for the 2026-27 fiscal year included zero direction of unencumbered funds and what some call a lack of funding for other workforce programs.

One lingering question from the past fiscal year budget was how to use the Strategic Outreach and Attraction Reserve Fund dollars that were sunset. There is around $607 million left to use in the now sunset line item for business outreach.

However, the budget did not use any SOAR funds, leaving the fund, yet again, unencumbered.

The House suggested in its proposal to use $150 million in SOAR funds for legislatively directed projects. However, the 135 projects were funded with $125.3 million in General Fund.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s recommendation called for $150 million to be allocated to site readiness efforts in a supplemental, with $100 million for items with an unknown end user and $50 million for sites with a known end user. However, this funding did not come through, even while part of the funds were tied to a major expansion deal for Chobani and fairlife in Muskegon County and Coopersville.

The Senate did not identify a purpose for the funds in its proposal.

House Speaker Matt Hall, R-Richland Township, said of the funds that while the Legislature could have lapsed the dollars into the General Fund and increased spending on “pork,” they chose not to do that.

Instead, he hopes the new governor will want to use that money to cut the income tax or property tax to lessen the impact of cuts over time.

A new focus in the budget was compliance with the federal budget bill and Medicaid, specifically the work requirements to receive benefits that take effect at the start of next year. Each chamber proposed funding to be distributed to Michigan Works! agencies to support job searches, readiness, placement assistance as well as skill training and vocational services.

The budget allocated $10 million toward the effort, less than all the proposals before the final budget numbers were set. The executive office proposed $25 million and two full-time positions, and both the House and Senate called for $15 million.

However, a supplemental for the 2025-26 fiscal year budget was also included: $18 million in General Fund, with $3 million in ongoing funds and $15 million in one-time funding to achieve compliance with the requirements.

Ryan Hundt, the Chief Executive Officer of Michigan Works!, posted his concerns on social media, saying their analysis of the actual need for navigation of the requirements stands at about $107.7 million.

A registered apprenticeship program was also expanded to provide additional opportunities for individuals to meet the work requirements, funded with $4 million in General Fund. The executive and Senate proposed $5 million, while the House did not include it in its proposal.

There was also $1 million in a supplemental allocated to contractual income verification services to implement the work requirements.

Hundt said these were “down payments, not the full investment,” and “a down payment comes with an obligation to keep building.”

Going Pro, a popular program among business leaders meant to assist employers in training and credentialing, was also cut yet again amid strong support from voices in the business community.

The budget allocated $14.5 million in one-time General Fund for the program, following the trend of reducing spending on it. Funding for Going Pro was cut to $22.3 million in one-time funding for the current fiscal year, while another $22.9 million in General Fund was eliminated.

The House looked to refund the missing dollars in $40 million in restricted funds, but Whitmer and the Senate did not include the program.

In grants given to businesses throughout the state, there were two solutions floated: the commonly used Business Attraction and Community Revitalization fund in the Senate and a new “small business support” fund from the House.

The budget implemented a mix of the two ideas in a budget line of $68.2 million for “Michigan Small Business, Community Growth, and Entrepreneurship Support.” The line breaks down the funding: $30 million for small business development grants, $28.6 million for community revitalization and business attraction, and $9.7 million for entrepreneurship.

The $60 million line for Business Attraction and Community Revitalization was removed, and small business supports were also left behind.

As Gov. Gretchen Whitmer continues to face blowback after vetoing of nine bills passed when Democrats controlled the Legislature in 2023-24, a spokesperson said she backed the Senate Democrats in their legal efforts.

Bobby Leddy, communications director for Whitmer, said in an email to Gongwer News Service that the governor supported the Senate Democrats in the lawsuit against the House.

However, Whitmer made no public statements on the lawsuit, nor did her office join the suit or file briefs on the topic. When asked by Gongwer in October 2025 about the Court of Appeals ordering the House to present the bills and whether the governor was prepared to sign them upon presentation, her office said only it was reviewing the ruling.

“Our office consistently said the House Republicans needed to follow the law, which required the speaker to transmit the legislation to the governor. Further, our office was working closely with the Senate Dems on their suit because they were the party with standing to sue,” he said. “The Senate Dems won the lawsuit, which now requires the Legislature to transmit bills in the future (including new copies of the nine bills if passed by the Legislature). It was important for the Senate to take the suit to conclusion.”

A spokesperson for Senate Democrats declined to comment.

One Senate Democrat, speaking on condition they not be named, told of the comments that the governor’s office support the lawsuit, said: “We all supported the suit and were blindsided by the vetoes. That’s not exactly a sign of her office working with us.”

In January of 2025, Whitmer told reporters that House Speaker Matt Hall, R-Richland Township, was entitled to a legal review on whether he had authority to present the bills from the prior Legislature. She said her office would “continue to wait and expect those bills to get presented shortly.” Those are the last direct comments from the governor or her staff that Gongwer could find on what they thought should happen with the bills. When Hall concluded his review in March, the governor’s office did not comment.

Leddy, when asked Monday why the governor did not declare Hall had an obligation to send the bills, said he didn’t know how the governor could have been more clear than what she said in January.

“I would refer you to exactly what she said,” he said. “She said, ‘I expect these to get presented shortly.’”

The most significant bills vetoed Friday after 18 months in limbo would have allowed corrections officers into the Department of State Police pension system and required public employers to pay more toward healthcare for certain public employees.

Leddy said Whitmer’s office “was pushing” for the corrections officers’ legislation letting them into the State Police pension system. It is unclear if the administration officially backed the bills in committee. Committee records for the 2023-24 term are no longer available. However, the House Fiscal Agency analysis of the legislation when it came out of committee does not list the Department of Corrections or the governor’s office as having a position. It notes several organizations supporting the bills.

Typically, a department will turn in a card for a bill in committee indicating support or opposition when it has a position.

Rep. Will Snyder, D-Muskegon, a sponsor of one of the pension bills, in a statement Friday, said Whitmer “always hesitated to take a supportive position,” on the legislation.

On Monday, Snyder said in a text message that if Whitmer was supportive of the bills, she would have signed them.

Another source pointed to a communication a State Police leadership staffer sent to senators in October 2024 regarding virtually identical Senate versions of the House bills that went to Whitmer and were vetoed. The staff member said the department had “significant concerns” with the bills and was asking senators to vote no.

Although it’s not unheard of for a governor to sign a bill over the objections of one of their departments, it is rare.

Snyder also mentioned HB 4173 of 2023, which was enrolled in December 2024 with no changes after more than a year sitting in the Senate. The bill created the sentencing commission. It contained seven references to actions that needed to be taken before Jan. 1, 2024.

“That bill also had multiple references to enactment dates that had already passed by the time it was signed,” Snyder said. “If she wanted to, she would signed any of the nine bills presented and the Legislature would have been tasked with fixing any potential implementation issues.”

Whitmer, in a veto letter, said she couldn’t sign the nine bills because the 18-month delay in getting them presented would create significant administrative issues, and the retroactive effect would be too costly.

One source pointed out a difference between the sentencing commission and the other bills was the sentencing commission’s scope was limited to appointing the commission. The bills the governor vetoed had more far reaching, complex language.

It’s never been clear why the House, then under Democratic control, did not present the nine bills to the governor before Republicans took control. Leddy said the conspiracy theory that there was a plot including the governor to prevent the bills from getting to her desk so she wouldn’t have to veto them is untrue.

Some groups were pleased with the governor’s vetoing of legislation requiring public employers to pay more toward healthcare. The Michigan Community College Association praised the veto on Friday. Michigan Association of State Universities Chief Executive Officer Dan Hurley said Monday the legislation would have been “very costly.”

“Michigan’s public universities are large and complex enterprises and require a strong financing partnership with the state to ensure that they provide high quality education to students,” he said in a statement. “These institutions require flexibility in negotiating, implementing, and paying for major expenditures such as employee healthcare. The FY 2027 state budget has been passed, and universities have already set their tuition rates for the upcoming year. Gov. Whitmer’s veto of the bill prevented HB 6058 from becoming an unbudgeted, unfunded, and untenable state policy.”

Many Democrats and activists were furious about the vetoes.

Ken Whittaker, executive director of Michigan United, on Facebook wrote Whitmer’s “legacy is shit.”

“Workers knocked doors for this governor. Union members gave money, gave time, and turned out the vote for this governor,” he said. “Black Detroiters helped put her in office. Buff wearing ‘Big Gretch.’ When those same people needed her signature, she handed them a veto and an excuse. You can’t run as a champion of labor and then veto relief for public employees. You can’t celebrate Black history and then deny voters the chance to fund the Charles H. Wright. You can’t claim to fight for struggling families and then let debt collectors take their disability checks. This wasn’t leadership or pragmatism. It was a cold political calculation, made at the expense of the people who built her career.”

Rep. Jimmie Wilson Jr., D-Ypsilanti, on X wrote, “most governors, on their way out, try to cement their legacy. This governor is definitely doing that…but in the opposite direction.”

Sen. Jeff Irwin, D-Ann Arbor, who supported vetoed legislation exempting public assistance, disability and worker’s compensation from garnishment to repay debts, tied Whitmer and House Republicans together on the issue.

“Governor Whitmer and Michigan House Republicans delivered a massive blow to teachers, public safety officers, corrections officers, and all public employees,” he wrote on Facebook. “This move enables and encourages future unconstitutional games by the Legislature and hurts regular people who are being squeezed by a tough economy.”

One source in the Department of Corrections said officers went from excitement about the Supreme Court ruling to heartbreak upon learning of the veto.

Asked Monday about the intense criticism toward the governor over the vetoes, Leddy pointed to Whitmer’s veto letter indicating it would have been impossible to implement the bills. The governor said the 18 months of delay would mean overwriting “law that has since gone into effect. Many of these bills have statutory deadlines that have long since passed.”

One Democrat, however, pointed to how the Supreme Court handled the adopt and amend lawsuit. After ruling in 2024 that the 2018 move by the Legislature to adopt voter-initiated laws raising the minimum wage and establishing paid sick time and then amend them was unconstitutional, the court created a new implementation schedule. This legislator said the same scenario could have occurred here had the governor signed the legislation and further motions been filed in the case.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer positioned housing as one of the key issues she wanted to tackle in her last year as a governor.

She highlighted the problems: the age of a first-time homebuyer is at a record high at 40, and so is the average income of first-time buyers at $97,000. The cost of materials has increased the cost of building new houses, along with the red tape holding up the availability of new units, not just diminished purchasing power. But Whitmer also emphasized the possible solutions: zoning reform and a new tax credit.

Rep. Kristian Grant, D-Grand Rapids, and Rep. Joe Aragona, R-Clinton Township, have taken on the mantle of housing legislation, leading the pack on both the low-income housing tax credit to be used in tandem with federal tax credits and a massive package of bipartisan bills meant to change zoning processes to build more housing units, specifically starter homes.

In a flurry of votes in the middle of the night during budget negotiations, the Legislature passed HB 5805, HB 5806, and HB 5807. The bills would establish a housing opportunity tax credit program meant to tap into more funds from the federal Low Income Housing Tax Credit. The bills set a base cap of total credits at $42 million in 2027. Around half the projects would be up to discretion of the authority, 25% would be saved for new construction, 25% would be set for preservation, and at least 30% would be set aside for projects in rural areas. By year six, the spending on the program would total approximately $252 million per year.

The Housing Readiness Package is still sitting in the House Government Operations Committee, a committee which, this term, has been used to both kill and expedite bill packages. The bills have heard testimony from the bill sponsors, but no comments from the public, even with a committee filled to the brim of supporters and opponents back in May.

Although it seems the bills, legislation backed by both Whitmer and House Speaker Matt Hall, R-Richland Township, have stalled, the legislative partners looking to bridge their caucuses with one solution remain focused on an issue that’s been in their wheelhouse for over four years.

When Aragona and Grant were freshmen in 2022, they were put on a housing subcomiittee together.

Aragona was inspired by the experiences of friends in his district buying their first homes around 2016. Less than a decade later, his friends were able to sell their homes at a profit. Aragona noted that although that’s good for his friend it’s not great for new homebuyers who are buying significantly more expensive houses than just a few years ago and pricing people out of the market all together.

“If you’re going up that steeply, there’s an issue. So, how do people now get into the market? I don’t know if I could have bought my house. I bought my house in 2015. I don’t know if I could do that again and be in the same area that I’m at,” Aragona said.

Grant said the American dream paints a specific image: buy a home with a white picket fence. Although that was attainable 20 to 30 years ago, it’s impossible for young people today.

With Grant leading on housing when Democrats had control of the Legislature, Aragona felt she was someone who actually wanted to work on the issue. Grant said their partnership felt stable, that no matter who was in the majority, someone would still be working on the issue.

Grant said both she and Aragona have their own landmines to step around in this work, on different sides of the aisle and the state, but they work together to fill each other’s blind spots in policy.

Aragona said they are a bit of an “odd couple”; Grant is more of a planner, and he flies by the seat of his pants, but they work well together otherwise.

The past policy initiatives in the trifecta, such as rent control and directives on landlords meant to speed up the renting process, is “feel-good stuff” Aragona said he wasn’t going to be able to get through the Republican caucus.

Grant said although she believes in the tenant protection legislation, the housing ecosystem is focused on simple supply and demand now.

“Tenants do deserve protections, and how stringent those protections, that’s up for debate,” Grant said. “I think we came to a point where it was like, if we only have 10 available units with 100 people looking for them, it doesn’t matter how many protections, there’s still some people who won’t have a roof over their head. We got to get more units on the ground.”

Now, in crafting their bipartisan legislation, Grant said it didn’t start with an intention to pull support from both sides of the aisle. It was just good policy that both caucuses could “wrap their arms around,” especially when there is data that supports zoning reform and is really a return to how housing solutions were addressed in the generations where housing was more abundant. It’s not new, it’s not drastic; it’s proven, Grant said.

In tackling a Whitmer priority, Aragona said it’s good to have supporters who can put real pressure on the issue and reach a good final product. The addition of the governor’s support is having more belief that they can get the legislation across the finish line.

Grant had no strong opinions on zoning before, assuming there was going to be some force to fight like big corporations buying up houses, but she found that the work was a seemingly “boring” policy point. But, she also realized there’s a reason why people have not addressed it before: it’s deep-rooted and personal to local communities.

Local leaders have been in staunch opposition to the bills, claiming the legislation would preempt local control on zoning and was not a direct way to drive down costs. Members of both caucuses in both chambers have also stood against the legislation with the local leaders.

Everyone can agree there’s a problem, Aragona said about his fellow legislators who oppose the legislation, but he challenges them to then offer up another solution.

There is an alternative presented by the locals: the MI Home proposal introduced by the Michigan Municipal League to provide $800 million over the next five years to boost statewide housing construction, or $160 million per year, which they say could spur the development of about 10,000 housing units over the next five years.

Aragona said it’s basically the same plan as theirs, but will cost more, which he says is not really a plan.

Grant said there is definitely a group of people who would love to kill the package, but they usually have homes and want to make sure “no one encroaches on their way of living.”

The opponents don’t want to talk about amendments or fixes, Grant said, they just want to be left alone. The conversation is currently about power, not people, she said.

“If your biggest concern is that you will have to give up some power, which I don’t even believe that to be true, but if you’re framing where people will lay their heads at night as a loss of power to you, you know, hey, what can I say,” Grant said.

Grant went as far as saying the main opponents and stakeholders have not even read the bills. When Grant reached out to Amy O’Leary, executive director of the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, she claimed O’Leary had not read the bills after two press conferences hosted by the group opposing the legislation.

O’Leary told Gongwer News Service she had not met with or spoken with Grant, though she would love to do so.

“I am very familiar with the legislation she has co-sponsored and how unpopular it is with local elected officials, which is why we have supported them in their efforts to bring legislators to the table and work together,” O’Leary said in a statement.

Local leaders have also maintained they had not been reached out to in the creation of the legislation.

Both representatives said they have had conversations for years on the proposals, most of the time never hearing back from stakeholders . Aragona said he wasn’t sure if the lobbyists for the locals “actually want to be part of a solution.”

Grant said Michigan Townships Association and Michigan Municipal League have had drafts of the legislation for years, and feedback was not given or taken seriously even during lame duck session negotiations.

Now, this year, lobbyists’ approach has been to spread information and treat some residents of their communities as less than, Grant said.

“I also think it’s a slap in the face to the people they serve, because some of the people they serve at this local level live in mobile homes, and are they not valuable members of your community?” she said. “Honestly, the approach has been really telling about who they value in their communities, who they don’t want in their communities, and how they really find the urgency of people who don’t have access to housing,’ Grant said.

She said she and Aragona have gone around the state talking to local leaders, because the associations are not doing the work.

Both organizations told Gongwer News Service they were in tune with the legislation during lame duck when the proposal was four bills, but they were never included in work groups or the legislation crafted this session.

Judy Allen from the Townships Association said the feedback her organization gave in lame duck was not incorporated into the bills, and then when the nine-bill package was introduced, it was “far broader in their impact on all Michigan communities.”

One issue for some local leaders is infrastructure worries, Allen said, that as more homes come online it will overwhelm the infrastructure like water mains and sewer lines. Michigan has aging infrastructure across the state, and in Detroit, there are still wooden pipes in the ground.

Grant said there is language in the bills that says infrastructure must be available for local zoning boards to approve proposals, and the intent is to open the door for conversation. She said this immediate reaction shows her that the opponents are not serious about the work.

There are many reasons to deny a project, Aragona said. There is always going to be an option to build a bigger house because that’s what the market calls for, Aragona said. But, this legislation opens the door for people to make money and build a starter home without locals getting in the way.

However, to the criticism that if the bills make it to the finish line, the changes won’t affect that many areas because of lack of infrastructure stability, Aragona said that is a separate issue altogether. He said whether they do something about housing or not, there are still underground infrastructure issues.

With the schedule recently being focused on passing the budget, pushing the legislation to the wayside, Aragona said he’s hoping it will see more movement after summer break because “the budget has to happen.”

As part of budget negotiations, the Legislature also passed HB 5570 and HB 5571, which would allow one staircase to be built in apartment buildings, which lawmakers say would draw down costs.

There are many other conversations to have about how to fix housing, Grant said, like tenant protections and the overall cost of materials, but she believes they have started with some of the hardest work with the most impact.

Aragona said a separate policy, but something to address in housing, is property tax reform. He said most people are unaware of how much their pop-up tax is going to hurt them because realtors base the price off what the residents living there for years have been paying instead of a higher new price.

During the interview, Grant perked up at the mention of property tax, saying it is something they could easily address next, informing people of what the reality of the tax will look like.