Crain’s Detroit Business
May 25, 2023
David Eggert
Michigan voters are conflicted about the economy, and one in four younger residents think they will be living elsewhere in a decade — a figure that is higher among Black voters.
Seven in 10 respondents are optimistic about their own long-term futures and report doing the same or better financially than a year ago. But nearly half say the state is on the wrong track, and three in four believe the economy is weakening or in a recession.
Those are among the findings in the Detroit Regional Chamber’s latest statewide poll, released Thursday before its annual policy conference next week on Mackinac Island. The live-operator survey of 600 registered voters was conducted May 7-10, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Chamber President and CEO Sandy Baruah said it is a “tremendously positive sign” that 65% were optimistic about Michigan’s future in 10 years and 72% were optimistic about their own future in the state in 10 years, “especially as we are trying to build more population. … “We have a really strong basis in order to meet some of our population and population-retention goals in the state of Michigan moving forward.”
Staying Here
The problem is not all residents are sold on Michigan as their home.
Seventy percent said they thought they would be living here in a decade; 17% said they thought they would be living elsewhere and 12% were unsure.
Among voters ages 18 to 29, 55% thought they would be living in Michigan, 26% elsewhere and 18% were unsure. The largest demographic group not seeing themselves living here in 10 years: Black voters. Fifty-two percent thought they would be in Michigan, 32% elsewhere and 16% were unsure.
Glengariff Group Inc. pollster Richard Czuba, whose firm did the poll, cautioned that respondents were asked if they think they will leave, not if they definitely will. He also said he had not asked the question before statewide, so it is unknown if people’s preference to stay or go has changed over time.
“Both in terms of young voters and Black voters, it says they’re optimistic that they’d do well in Michigan but they are not wedded in Michigan,” he said. “So there’s this tremendous opportunity for policymakers in the state to nail these residents down in Michigan before they turn their 30s and settle in. I think the message out of this poll is everyone needs to get really, really serious about what matters to these residents under 30 to keep them here.”
He noted that 17% of those who thought they would leave said it would be because of the weather — the No. 1 reason.
“There’s not much we can do about that, frankly,” Czuba said.
College
The survey included some follow-up to the chamber’s February poll, which Baruah found “disappointing” because 36% said the minimum education level needed to be successful was a high school diploma and 8% said a four-year college degree. Nearly 27% said college was very important to getting a successful job.
This time, 63% of voters whose highest level of education is high school said they were open to two extra years of school or training to get a higher-paying job. The number jumped to 90% of those ages 18 to 29 if tuition is free. The state offers tuition-free programs for people ages 25 and older and frontline workers, though just 15% were familiar with one of them — Michigan Reconnect — in February.
“It paints a much more encouraging picture about what policymakers and influencers and business leaders need to be thinking about and what they need to be doing to ensure that individual Michiganders understand the opportunities that they have in front of them,” Baruah said. “We need to stop thinking about post-secondary credential achievement as some sort of overall policy goal and make it more personal, why this matters to individuals, not why does it matter for some sort of statewide goal. We’ve been thinking about some of these issues not quite the right way.”
DEI
Just over half, 51%, of voters had not heard of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs, which have been criticized by conservatives. When read a standardized definition, 79% said DEI is important and 18% said it is not. While Republicans were less likely than Democrats or independents to view DEI as important, 58% of Republicans said it is important.
Seventy percent of respondents said the programs are good for business.
Trust
Voters were read 13 types of people in their community and asked to indicate how must they trust them on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the most trustworthy.
CEOs ranked lowest in trust, at 4.5. Librarians rated highest, at 7.9.
Others ranked below 6 were reporters, local elected leaders and Democratic and Republican voters. Those rated at 7 or above included neighbors, local small businesses, local banks, local law enforcement and local clergy.
Businesses Speaking Out
Asked if businesses have a right to voice their opinions on proposed legislation free from retribution by elected officials, 74% said yes and 15% said no.