Sept. 2026 Small Business Outlook

Summary: Use of digital tools to bolster growth is becoming a global method for small businesses.

• 67% of American small businesses prioritize stability and predictability over fast growth compared to 59% of SMEs in the Middle East and Africa, 69% in Europe and Asia Pacific countries, and 74% in Latin America.
• 62% of American small businesses would rather build deep customer relationships than reach more new customers compared to 61% of SMEs in Australia, 63% in Canada, and 69% in the UK and Brazil.
• SMEs are already using an average of five digital tools and 89% want to adopt more.
• 37% of SMEs use cybersecurity protection tools and 71% want to prioritize protection from cyber threats.

Learn more about this data from the Mastercard Dreamonomics Report, published on Sept. 15, 2026.

Summary: Retailers are looking to grow by making their operations more efficient over the next 12 months.

• 94% of retailers rated their business good or excellent (unchanged from 2025) and 66% say they will likely open a new location next year (up three points from 2025).
• 83% of retailers expect to remain open over the next year (up five points from 2025).
• 32% of retailers ranked profitability as their top goal and meeting that goal meant plans to run more efficiently.
• 21% of retailers rated inventory management as the hardest part of running a retail business (up six points from 2025).
• 33% of retailers plan on adjusting the number of suppliers if the cost of goods rise and 32% plan on raising prices if the cost of goods rise.
• 85% of large retailers (over $1 million gross merchandise value (GMV)) are comfortable with current market conditions compared with 83% of small retailers.
• 75% of retailers plan to increase their spending on technology in the next 12 months (up 11 points from 2025).
• 42% of retailers are actively experimenting with artificial intelligence (AI) through vendors and 20% are experimenting with AI on their own.
• 90% of retailers will use AI more in the future (up six points from 2025) and 92% say that AI tools offer great value for the money.

Learn more about this data from Toast’s 2026 Voice of the Retail Industry, published on Sept. 9, 2026.

Summary: Sales slow on Main Street and plans for growth continue to be stalled.

• 10% of small business owners expect better business conditions in the next three months (five points lower than July). The historical average is 4%.
• 12% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (no change from July).
• -9% of small businesses reported higher sales in the past three months (five points lower than July) and 6% expect higher sales in the next three months (one point lower than July).
• 31% of small businesses raised their prices in August (no change from July). 28% are planning on raising prices in the next three months (no change from July).
• 53% of small businesses reported capital outlays in the last six months (one point lower than July) and 24% are planning capital purchases in the next six months (one point lower than July).
• -2% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next three months (two points better than July).
• Small businesses paid an average rate for short maturity loans of 7.4% in August (0.4 points lower than July) and 25% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis (two points lower than July). The historical average is 34%.

Learn more about this data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) August Optimism Index, published on Sept. 8, 2026.

Summary: Main Street’s job market remains healthy and small employers’ plans to hire reverted back to normal levels after July’s uptick.

• 35% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in August (one point lower than July). The historical average is 24%.
• 31% of small business owners raised compensation in August (no change from July) and 18% plan on raising compensation in the next three months (one point lower than July).
• 23% of small business owners cite “labor quality or availability” as their single most important problem (four points lower than July) The historical average is 12%.
• 17% of small business owners plan on creating new jobs in the next three months (three points lower than July).  The historical average is 11%.

Learn more about this data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) August Jobs Report, published on Sept. 3, 2026.

Summary: The overall index held steady, with shoppers spending more, but during fewer visits.

• Month over month sales at small businesses fell in August (-0.2%) and year over year sales continued upward (+1.3% compared to August 2025).
• Average checkout totals rose 3.0% compared to a year ago, continuing the trend of higher spending per visit rather than increased customer traffic.

Learn more about this data from Fiserv August Small Business Index, published on Sept. 2, 2026.

Summary: Small Businesses continue to rely on their best employees to meet demand.

• Jobs index dropped 0.10% from August and remains in line with the year’s average.
• Weekly earnings growth increased 3% in August and hours-per-week grew 0.07%, remaining in positive growth territory for 6 consecutive months (a record set in 2020).
• Education and Health Services has been in the top 2 sectors for job growth every month since February 2023 and ranked strongest for August.

Learn more about this data from PayChex August Small Business Employment Watch, published on Sept. 1, 2026.