August 2024 Small Business Outlook

U.S. Chamber
Aug. 19, 2024

Headwinds of inflation remain front and center on small businesses’ radar. High interest rates are also dampening capital investment. Despite those challenges, post-election optimism remains high for Main Street employers.

Notably, small business owners continue to feel positive about their own operations and their local economy. The opposite is true with regard to their feelings about the national economy. Roughly 36% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health.

Summary: Headwinds of inflation remain front and center on small businesses’ radar and optimism for post-election bump is growing.

• 16% of small business owners reported higher sales in the past 3-months (4 points worse than June) and the percentage expecting higher sales rose by 4 points since June to reach -9% (highest this year).
• 25% of small business owners ranked inflation as their top concern (4 points higher than in June and still the top cited problem), and 19% said that labor quality is their top concern (unchanged since June).
• 22% of small businesses raised their prices in July (5 points lower than June), and 24% are planning on raising prices in the next 3 months (2 points lower than June).
• 54% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last six months (up 2 points from June), and 23% are planning capital purchases in the next three months (no change in the past two months).
• 7% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3 months (there has been no change in the past 2 months).
• 62% of small business owners are not interested in a loan (1 point higher than June), and 27% report borrowing on a regular basis (1 point lower than June).
• 3% of small business owners reported that financing was their top problem in May (down 1 point from June).

Learn more about this data from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index, published Aug. 13, 2024.

U.S. Chamber
Aug. 12, 2024

Foot traffic slows at theme parks and on Main Streets, but post-election optimism remains high for small businesses. The latest data on Main Street employers indicates a slowdown in sales, but revenue remains up compared to last year.

Summary: Monthly benchmark based on consumer spending using payment processing data. Consumers are pulling back slowly, and sales are still up compared to a year ago.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in July rose 1.3%, and month-over-month transactions dropped -0.7%.
• Year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 3.5%, and transactions rose by 3.3%.
• Spending increases in July came from retail, professional services, web-based content hosting, manufacturing, transportation, and specialty trade contractors.
• Spending decreases in July came from food services and bars.

Learn more about this data from Fiserv Small Business Index, published Aug. 5, 2024.

U.S. Chamber
Aug. 1, 2024

Reports of a softening labor market are a green flag for small businesses who have been trying to hire for several years. High wage expectations seem to be leveling off, which could be the catalyst for Main Street employers who need more employees to grow their businesses.

Summary: Overall small business employment in July increased by 0.03% compared to June.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in June dropped -2.9%, and transactions dropped -1.5%.
• Business transactions rose by 4.4% compared to last year.
• Spending increases in June came from insurance (rising premiums), amusement (summer foot traffic), and web-based content hosting (subscriptions).
• Spending decreases in June came from retail, accommodations, restaurants, ambulatory health care, and professional services.

Learn more about this data from Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index, published Aug. 1, 2024.

U.S. Chamber
Aug. 1, 2024

Summary: There is still a worker shortage on Main Street, but expectations for higher wages have leveled off.

• 38% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill in July (1 point higher than June and still far above the 49-year average of 23%).
• 57% of small businesses hired or tried to hire in July (3 points lower than June). Of those hiring, 86% of owners reported few or no qualified job applicants (1 point higher than June).
• 15% of small business owners are planning to create new jobs in the next 3-months (no change from the past 3-months which maintained the highest level for 2024).
• 33% of businesses raised compensation in July (5 points lower than June) and 18% of small business owners plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (4 points lower than June).
• 32% of small businesses have openings for skilled workers (up 1 point from June) and 16% have openings for unskilled labor (no change from June).
• Over half the small businesses in construction (55%) have a job opening they can’t fill.

Learn more about this data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) July Jobs Report, published Aug. 1, 2024.