June 2025 Small Business Data Outlook: Uncertainty is Dampening Growth Plans

Summary: Pressure on Congress to prevent an end-of-year tax hike is high as small business owners’ concerns over taxes take top spot.

• 25% of small business owners expect the economy to improve (10 points higher than April).
• 10% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (1 point higher than April).
• -13% of small business owners reported higher sales in the past 3-months (5 points worse than April) and 10% are expecting higher sales (11 points higher than April and a reversal of 4 months of decline).
• 18% of small businesses reported taxes as their top concern in May (2 points higher than April). 16% of small business owners reported labor quality their top concern (3 points lower than April) and 14% cited inflation as their top concern (no change from April).
• 34% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill (no change from April) and 86% of those trying to hire reported few or no qualified applicants (1 point higher than April).
• 26% of small business owners raised compensation in the past 3-months (7 points lower than April) and 20% plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (3 points higher than April).
• 25% of small businesses raised their prices (no change from April) and 31% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (3 points higher than April).
• 56% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (2 points lower than April) and 22% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (4 points higher than April).
• ·-4 of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (3 points better than April).
• The average rate paid for short maturity loans was 8.7% (down 0.2 points from April) and 25% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis (1 point lower than April).
• 5% of small business owners reported that financing was their top problem (2 points higher than April, when it had remained steady for 3 months).

Learn more about this data from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) April Small Business Optimism Index, published on June 10, 2025.

Summary: A supermajority of small business owners are optimistic and are planning to grow in 2025 even as frustration with Washington, DC remains high.

• 75% of small business owners are optimistic about their future and 72% are planning on growing throughout 2025.
• 51% of small business owners believe that interest rates are too high to afford a loan.
• 90% of small business owners want Congress to bolster tax certainty, predictability, and simplicity.
• 78% of small business owners want Congress to reinstate full and immediate research and development (R&D) expensing.
• 36% of small businesses currently feel the impact of increased tariffs and 38% are expecting to experience negative impacts caused by tariffs.
• 80% of small business owners believe that regulatory red tape takes time away from managing and growing their business.
• 55% of small business owners want the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) to focus on cutting red tape.

Learn more about this data from Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Business Voices Survey, published on June 5, 2025.

Summary: The rise in small business sales continues its slow down.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in May rose 0.2% from April and year-over-year sales at small businesses rose 3.3% compared to May 2024.

Learn more about this data from Fiserv May Small Business Index, published on June 2, 2025.