September 2024 Small Business Outlook

Small business owners remain bullish about how they will do in 2025, even while voicing skepticism about inflation coming down. Recent polling indicates that small business owners believe 2025 will be better for their businesses, with increasing optimism about technology and AI aiding growth, while following political news ahead of the election to see whether the next President’s policies will benefit them.

Summary: Small business owners are following the Presidential election closely and are mostly optimistic about 2025.

• 51% of small business owners report their business is doing better in 2024 than a year ago. 84% believe that 2025 will be better than this year and 48% anticipate a stronger economy.
• 43% of small business owners believe inflation will improve over the next 12-months, with 49% of the most optimistic group (owners under 44-years old (millennials)) anticipating that inflation will ease.
• 47% of small business owners surveyed are not recruiting new employees.  Of those looking to fill open positions, 28% are offering higher wages, 19% are offering remote work options, and 16% are offering the ability to work fewer hours.
• Startup business owners report the highest stress levels (72%) compared to owners who have been in business for more than 6-years (58%).
• 81% of small business owners are following political news leading up to the election closely and any equal percentage of small business owners are optimistic the next President’s policies will help their business (40%) versus those who are skeptical (39%).

Learn more about this data from the Entrepreneur Small Business Owner Survey, published Sept. 18, 2024.

Summary: Small business reliance on technology for growth is up fueled by AI.

• 99% of small businesses use at least one technology platform compared to 93% in 2022 and 95% in 2023. Social media platforms top the list (66%) followed by digital payments (57%) and accounting (56%).
• 85% of small businesses are confident that technology will help their businesses grow (up 3 points from 2023).
• 40% of small businesses are using generative AI (up 17 points from 2023) and marketing/promotions show most frequent use of generative AI (56%).
• 60% of small business owners believe AI will help their businesses (up 5 points from 2023).
• 54% of small business owners are worried that government regulation of technology would harm their business, with 78% worried that limiting access to AI will slow their ability to grow their business.

Learn more about this data from U.S. Chamber Technology Engagement Center: Impact of Technology on U.S. Small Business, published Sept. 16, 2024.

U.S. Chamber
Sept. 13, 2024

Summary: Inflation and workforce challenges are hitting rural small businesses hard.

• Over 73% of rural small business owners believe their business has a meaningful impact on the local economy and on the social well-being of their community.
• 98% of rural small business owners report that the cost of doing business has increased over the past 5-years and 64% have experienced flat or decreased profitability.
• 62% of rural small businesses report that attracting workers to their community is a challenge and 35% are worried that young talent will leave. Lack of affordable housing tops the list of challenges rural small business owners face in recruiting and keeping good workers.
• 67% of rural small business owners have a positive view of the economy (fair to excellent) compared to 73% of non-rural small business owners.

Learn more about this data from the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Report on Rural Small Businesses, published Sept. 13, 2024.

U.S. Chamber
Sept. 10, 2024

Summary: Small businesses’ sales outlook plummeted in August and inflation remains top concern.

• 16% of small business owners reported higher sales in the past 3-months (unchanged from July) and the percentage expecting higher sales dropped 9 points since July to reach -18%.
• 24% of small business owners ranked inflation as their top concern (1 point lower than July and still the top cited problem) and 21% said that labor quality is their top concern (2 points higher than July).
• 20% of small businesses raised their prices in August (2 points lower than July) and 25% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (1 point higher than July).
• 56% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (up 2 points from July) and 24% are planning capital purchases in the next 3-months (up 1 point from July).
• 8% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (down 1 point from July).
• 60% of small business owners are not interested in a loan (2 points lower than July) and 27% report borrowing on a regular basis (unchanged from July).
• 4% of small business owners reported that financing was their top problem in August (up 1 point from July).

Learn more about this data from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index, updated Sept. 10, 2024.

U.S. Chamber
Sept. 6, 2024

Consumer spending is continuing its slow trend downward, but sales at small businesses remain above last year’s figures. Prices for supplies remain high, but it is only a matter of time before Main Street employers’ need for qualified workers overtakes inflation as their top challenge.

Summary: Consumer spending continues to slowly trend downward and sales are still up compared to a year ago.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in August declined 0.3% compared to July and year-over-year sales at small businesses grew 1.6% compared to August 2023.
• Spending increases in August came from food manufacturing, performing arts, truck transportation, and businesses in the spectator sports sector.
• Spending decreases in August came from educational services, insurance, ambulatory healthcare, and specialty trade contracting.

Learn more about this data from Fiserv Small Business Index, published Sept. 6, 2024.

U.S. Chamber
Sept. 5, 2024

Summary: Small business owners remain frustrated by lack of qualified job applicants.

• 40% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill in August (2 points higher than July and still far above the 49-year average of 23%).
• 62% of small businesses hired or tried to hire in August (5 points higher than July). Of those hiring, 90% of those hiring reported few or no qualified job applicants (4 points higher than July).
• 13% of small business owners are planning to create new jobs in the next 3-months (2 points lower than July).
• 33% of businesses raised compensation in August (no change from July) and 20% of small business owners plan on raising compensation in the next 3-months (2 points higher than July).
• 36% of small businesses have openings for skilled workers (up 4 points from July) and 15% have openings for unskilled labor (down 1 point from July).
• 60% of small businesses in construction have a job opening they can’t fill (5 points higher than July).

Learn more about this data from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) August Jobs Report, published Sept. 5, 2024.